While this breakout is fueling market optimism, on-chain analyst from CryptoQuant warns that it’s crucial to look beyond price and assess the MVRV Ratio—a key valuation metric.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the value of coins based on their acquisition cost. It helps gauge whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical norms.
Golden Cross Flashes on Moving Averages—But Beware the Divergence
Technically, Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average (DMA) has just crossed above the 365DMA, forming a golden cross—a bullish momentum signal often associated with continued mid-term upside.
However, the MVRV Ratio is not confirming the rally. Instead of rising with the new price peak, the ratio is falling, signaling a potential divergence similar to what happened in 2021. Back then, price made a higher high, but MVRV failed to follow—foreshadowing the start of a prolonged bear market.
Current Cycle Mirrors 2021 Breakdown Pattern
In this 2025 cycle, BTC peaked near $109K in January before reaching a new high in May. According to the report, MVRV has yet declined during this period, echoing the warning signs of the previous cycle.
Yonsei_dent notes that this type of divergence is often linked to weakening market conviction and an overextended rally.
Mixed Signals Call for Caution and Strategic Positioning
With both bullish and bearish signals in play, this is a critical moment for investors. Price momentum looks strong, but the lack of on-chain support suggests fragility beneath the surface.
The takeaway from the analyst? It’s time to closely monitor key support levels—on-chain and off-chain alike. If buying activity weakens further or MVRV continues to diverge, the rally could lose steam.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-hits-record-highs-but-whats-the-mvrv-saying/