Bitcoin – Here’s why this analyst is expecting the ‘overheated market’ to correct

• Sentiment index at 69 signals optimism, but caution is advised
• Historical patterns pointed to correction risks near market highs

As the market enters 2025, investor sentiment is at a high, fueled by growing optimism and a renewed sense of opportunity. While enthusiasm is building, it remains well below the extreme levels seen during previous market booms. Nevertheless, experts are cautioning that the risk of a correction, particularly in Bitcoin [BTC] and other major cryptos, is increasing as the market continues to gain momentum.

With this in mind, it’s crucial for investors to stay vigilant, carefully monitoring key indicators and being alert to early signs that could signal a shift in market dynamics.

Fear and greed index – What happens at 95?

Source: Binance Square

At press time, the index stood at 69 – A strong sign of optimism but still far from the red zone. Analysts believe that when the index touches 95, the market typically enters a phase of overheating, marked by speculative excess and euphoria. Historically, this threshold has served as a warning signal, indicating that a correction or downturn may be imminent.

Such levels often precede shifts in investor behavior, as cautious optimism gives way to unsustainable exuberance.

Key indicators to watch for a potential correction

As the market approaches overheated conditions, Adler made note of several key indicators that could provide early warnings of a correction.

Long-term holder sales

Historically, increased selling activity by long-term holders has signaled the start of market corrections. December 2024 saw a slight uptick in LTH profit-taking, echoing patterns observed before the 2021 and 2017 market peaks. A sharp rise in these sales would suggest that experienced investors are offloading ahead of a potential downturn, undermining market confidence.

BTC ETF outflows

After record-breaking inflows in late 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have seen modest outflows in early January 2025. This decline could indicate cooling sentiment among institutional investors – Often a harbinger of reduced buying pressure.

MicroStrategy share movements

As a bellwether for institutional Bitcoin sentiment, MSTR shares serve as a key proxy. Any sustained decline in its stock performance, particularly following strong demand in Q4 2024, could reflect diminishing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among institutional investors. Such moves have previously coincided with market corrections.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-26

Bitcoin – Historical patterns and price analysis

Source: X

The correlation between sentiment and price has historically been a reliable predictor of market cycles. At the time of writing, the NUPL-MVRV index seemed to be approaching levels that previously signaled market peaks in 2017, 2021, and mid-2024.

These thresholds mark zones of heightened risk, where corrections often follow overheated conditions.

Source: TradingView

Similarly, Bitcoin’s RSI cooled to 46 on the daily chart after December’s overbought highs, suggesting a potential shift towards consolidation or decline.

The price action near $95,000 reflects a critical resistance zone, as previous parabolic runs stalled after similar RSI drops. A failure to reclaim momentum here could pave the way for a retracement to support levels around $88,000–$90,000, aligning with broader profit-taking and declining ETF inflows.