Bitcoin – Here’s why Ray Dalio believes in crypto’s odds as ‘legit hedge’ in 2025

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is now gaining credibility as a hedge while the Federal Reserve faces a debt-driven dilemma.

The U.S debt is at historically high levels right now. 

At the time of writing, America’s debt pile stood at $37.3 trillion. Notably, the United States spends about $1 trillion a year just on interest and needs another $9 trillion to roll over existing debt, plus roughly $2 trillion more to cover the deficit.

Keeping this in mind, hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that this pattern could push America towards a debt-induced “heart attack” within the next three years. Hence, the question is – Where does that leave Bitcoin [BTC]?

Mounting debt puts dollar and bonds on shaky ground

Debt is inevitable, but servicing it depends on national income.

Interestingly, the U.S budget deficit surged by nearly 20% in July to $291 billion, even after a $21 billion bump from tariffs. Basically, revenue can’t keep up with spending – A sign that the fiscal system may be under serious stress.

The fallout? The U.S. Dollar Index [DXY] has dropped by roughly 11% over the past seven months to 98.386, signaling that investors may be losing faith in the dollar as a reliable store of value.

Source: TradingView (DXY)

The U.S. bond market is feeling it too.

The 30-year Treasury yield spiked by nearly 5%, marking levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis. In addition, the 10-year yield hiked to 4.22%, up from 3.84% a year ago, signaling a steepening yield curve.

Simply put, capital might be moving away from traditional safe havens as U.S economic growth shows signs of slowing down. In this context, could Bitcoin’s 18.76% gains in 2025 now serve as the market’s go-to safe haven?

Fed pressure boost Bitcoin’s case as a hedge

Macro volatility is clearly driving flows into alternative assets. 

Sure, Bitcoin’s 19% YTD gains backed up its “store of value” story, but Gold [XAU] has been stealing the spotlight with a massive 35.12% surge so far in 2025, In fact, it beat its annual gains over the past eight years too.

This marks a key divergence from previous cycles. The Fed is still hawkish on rate cuts, yet capital keeps flowing into Bitcoin – A sign that investors may be starting to see it as a legit macro hedge.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

That could help explain why Bitcoin’s price rallied, despite tariff pressures.

With U.S debt rising and pressure on the dollar and Treasuries, the Fed is stuck – Hike rates and risk a debt crunch, or print money to keep rates low, something that could weaken the dollar and spark inflation.

Amid all this macro chaos, Bitcoin is now emerging as the go-to hedge.