Bitcoin Has 51% Chance to Fall Below $45K by 2026: Polymarket

• Polymarket prices a 51% chance that Bitcoin drops below $45K, showing a divided market outlook.
• Analyst points to Oct–Nov 2026 as a likely cycle bottom near $45K–$50K.
• Bitcoin falls 4.49% as volume rises 18.8%, signaling increased sell-side activity.

Bitcoin price may fall further as Polymarket traders now see a 51% chance it could drop below $45,000 by December 31, 2026. This comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

The Bitcoin price today has fallen below $70,000 from a recent high of $76,000 on March 17. Meanwhile, market analysis also suggests the price may not yet have reached its bottom.

Polymarket Shows Split Outlook on Bitcoin Downside

Data from Polymarket shows traders pricing “Yes” shares at $0.51 and “No” shares at $0.49 on the question of whether Bitcoin will drop below $45,000 before the end of 2026. That pricing indicates a nearly balanced market, with only a marginal edge toward a bearish outcome.

The probability chart showed sentiment fluctuating mostly between 44% and 49% before rising above the midpoint. That late move pushed expectations into a negative territory, although the market remained close to evenly split.

Analysts Eye Late-2026 Bitcoin Cycle Bottom

Beyond prediction markets, crypto analyst NoLimit highlights historical patterns showing that Bitcoin’s bottom may not arrive until late 2026.

Looking at past cycles, Bitcoin hit its lowest point 406 days after the 2012 halving peak, 363 days after the 2016 peak, and 376 days after the 2020 peak. NoLimit notes that the current cycle, following the 2024 halving, has not yet reached that stage.

The analyst also highlighted the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which historically enters a “blue zone” near major bottoms. So far, Bitcoin has not reached that level, suggesting a potential price range of $45,000 to $50,000 before a cycle low is confirmed.

Bitcoin Drops 4.49% as Selling Pressure Builds

In the short term, Bitcoin has already shown signs of weakness. As of now, BTC is trading at $69.852, down 4.5% over the past 24 hours after opening near $74,000.

Meanwhile, the bitcoin crypto market cap has fallen by 4.51% to $1.41 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume jumped 18.8% to $46.77 billion.

While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, both prediction market data and historical cycle analysis point toward the possibility that Bitcoin has not yet reached its final bottom in this cycle.