Bitcoin Has 50% Chance to End Month Above $140K

His analysis suggests Bitcoin’s price movements follow cyclical patterns in volatility, liquidity, and sentiment rather than random behavior. With Bitcoin currently around $122,000, reaching $140,000 will require a 20% monthly gain—closely matching its historical October average. While Peterson acknowledges that Bitcoin doesn’t always follow past trends, there is still some optimism among analysts who see the recent BTC price pullback as a healthy retest before potential gains.

Bitcoin Could Hit $140K This Month

Economist Timothy Peterson forecasted a 50% probability that Bitcoin will pass $140,000 this month. His prediction is based on statistical simulations using a decade of historical data. 

In an X post, Peterson explained that there is also a 43% chance Bitcoin could finish October below $136,000. At its current level of around $122,000, Bitcoin will need to gain almost 15% to reach the $140,000 mark after cooling from its recent all-time high of $126,200 that was set on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.

BTC’s price action over the past week (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Peterson said his projection is based entirely on data-driven simulations rather than subjective market sentiment. The model uses Bitcoin’s daily price data from 2015 to replicate its historical volatility and cyclical behavior. “Every projection follows the same logic—price changes that match Bitcoin’s real historical, repetitive volatility and rhythm,” he explained. The simulation also eliminates human bias and emotion.

Bitcoin opened October at roughly $116,500, which means a climb to $140,000 will represent a 20% monthly increase.This actually closely aligns with the cryptocurrency’s historical October average of 20.75% according to CoinGlass. Peterson added that his analysis provides a “clear, probability-based picture of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to go,” as the approach filters out the noise that typically clouds short-term market sentiment.

Bitcoin monthly returns (Source: CoinGlass)

Still, Peterson acknowledged that Bitcoin sometimes diverged from historical expectations despite strong data-based confidence. The broader crypto market, however, is still mostly optimistic. Analysts like Jelle and Matthew Hyland both suggested that Bitcoin’s recent pullback is a natural retest of previous highs and that momentum could soon resume.

Peterson pointed out that Bitcoin’s short-term price behavior is not random but influenced by cyclical patterns in liquidity, sentiment, and institutional positioning. He also said that October is often a pivotal period for markets due to Q3 portfolio rebalancing, fiscal year planning by funds, and preparations for year-end reporting—all factors that tend to drive new institutional activity in Bitcoin.