Most Bitcoin investors get very excited about the Bitcoin halving, which happens approximately every four years. When a Bitcoin halving happens, the Bitcoin block reward is decreased by half. The block reward is received by the miner that adds the next block to the Bitcoin blockchain, and it is the only way in which new BTC coins are created.
Every halving therefore reduces the amount of new BTC entering circulation, which is seen as a positive by existing BTC holders. This is because halvings reduce the Bitcoin inflation rate, and also reduce the amount of potential selling pressure from Bitcoin miners. The Bitcoin halving in 2024 will reduce the block reward from the current 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block.
Bitcoin halving rewards have decreased from 50 per mined block in 2009 to 6.25 per mined block in 2020.
So far, we have had three Bitcoin halvings. The first happened in November 2012, the second happened in July 2016, and the third happened in May 2020. As for future Bitcoin halving dates, we can estimate when they will happen but can’t predict them with complete accuracy.
This is because the Bitcoin protocol is designed so that the block reward is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks. While the Bitcoin protocol targets a 10-minute block time, the time it actually takes to add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain varies on a block-by-block basis.
If blocks are being added too quickly, the difficulty of mining is automatically increased. If blocks are being added too slowly, the difficulty is decreased. These difficulty adjustments happen after every 2016 blocks, which translates to approximately two weeks.
Next BTC halving date is March 2024
At the time of writing (January 2023), most estimates suggest that the next Bitcoin halving date is late March 2024. Even though it’s impossible to predict the exact amount of time it will take to add blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain, we can still get a pretty accurate estimate of when the next Bitcoin halving will happen. The closer we get to the halving, the more accurate the estimates will be.
As we can see from this updated version of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, the three past Bitcoin halvings have happened when the BTC price was relatively low. If this trend were to continue, we would see the current crypto bear market extend into the first half of 2024, and we would expect the trend to start reversing in the second half of 2024. The next Bitcoin halving could play an important role in the recovery of the crypto market.
Image source: Blockchain Center
Bitcoin halving dates history
Now, let’s take a quick look at the history of Bitcoin halvings with our Bitcoin halving dates chart. So far, Bitcoin has had three halvings, and the price at each halving was significantly higher than at the previous halving. For the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, BTC holders will certainly be hoping that the trend continues.
| Date | Block height | Block reward reduction | BTC price at date of halving | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First halving | November 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 50 BTC => 25 BTC | $12.3 |
| Second halving | July 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 25 BTC => 12.5 BTC | $680 |
| Third halving | May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 BTC => 6.25 BTC | $8,590 |
| Fourth halving | March 2024 (estimate) | 840,000 | 6.25 BTC = 3.125 BTC | – |
Now, let’s take a look at how the Bitcoin price has moved during each Bitcoin halving cycle. For each 4-year period, we’ll take a look at the highest and lowest price reached by BTC.
| Lowest price | Highest price | |
|---|---|---|
| First halving cycle (November 2012 – July 2016) | $12.4 (December 2012) | $1,170 (November 2013) |
| Second halving cycle (July 2016 – May 2020) | $535 (August 2016) | $19,400 (December 2017) |
| Third halving cycle (May 2020 – March 2024)* | $8,590 (May 2020) | $67,450 (November 2021) |
*Third halving cycle is not yet completed, so the low and high are determined with price data as of January 3, 2023. Third halving date is estimated.
As we can see from the Bitcoin halving cycle price chart, Bitcoin halvings have historically represented strong opportunities to buy BTC. However, there have only been 3 halvings so far, so the sample size is very small.
Pre-halving period
The period between the Genesis block and the first Bitcoin halving in 2012 can be called the pre-halving period. This period lasted from the launch of Bitcoin on January 3, 2009 and lasted until November 28, 2012.
The Bitcoin protocol started off by providing a 50 BTC block reward to miners. Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous inventor of Bitcoin, was participating in Bitcoin mining during the protocol’s early days and amassed a huge stash of BTC. According to estimates, Satoshi mined between 750,000 and 1.1 million BTC.
- Block reward: 50 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 10.5 million
- Highest price: $29.6
- Lowest price: $0.06
Bitcoin halving 2012 (first halving)
The second Bitcoin halving happened on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward to 25 BTC. During this first halving cycle, Bitcoin began seeing mainstream attention due to its use on dark web markets like Silk Road, and the collapse of the Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange also captured a lot of attention. During this period, the Bitcoin price surpassed $1,000 for the first time ever.
- Halving date: November 28, 2012
- Block reward: 25 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 5.25 million
- Highest price: $1,170
- Lowest price: $12.4
Bitcoin halving 2016 (second halving)
The second Bitcoin halving happened on July 9, 2016 and reduced the Bitcoin block reward to 12.5 BTC. During this second halving cycle, Bitcoin got some serious competition in the cryptocurrency market, as the emergence of Ethereum and ICOs helped spark a crypto market bubble that reached its peak in late 2017 and early 2018.
Even though Bitcoin dominance fell sharply during this period, BTC investors still had the opportunity for substantial gains as the price peaked at almost $20,000.
- Halving date: July 9, 2016
- Block reward: 12.5 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 2.625 million
- Highest price: $19,400
- Lowest price: $8,590
Bitcoin halving 2020 (third halving)
The third Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020 and brought the block reward into the single digits, or 6.25 BTC to be more precise. During this halving cycle, the Bitcoin market cap surpassed $1 trillion for the first time ever and BTC reached its all-time high of $67,450.
This cycle was marked by growing adoption and investment from sophisticated investors, although the rising crypto prices of course also attracted a large mainstream crowd to the crypto markets.
This halving cycle is not over yet, as we’re still waiting for the third Bitcoin halving, which is estimated for March 2024.
- Halving date: May 11, 2020
- Block reward: 6.25 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 1.3125 million
- Highest price: $67,400
- Lowest price: $535
How many Bitcoin halvings will there be?
Bitcoin halvings are one of the most critical events in the crypto industry, regulating the Bitcoin mining economy and introducing cyclical price activity to the sector.
There will be many more Bitcoin halvings in the future, as they will continue until the last Bitcoin is mined. In total, there will be 32 Bitcoin halvings, which means there’s 29 more halvings left to go.
Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, of which 19.22 million have already been mined. When all 21 million BTC are mined, Bitcoin miners will no longer be receiving any block rewards, but will only receive the transaction fees paid by users. By the time of the next Bitcoin halving in 2024, 93.7% of the total Bitcoin supply will have been mined.
Source: https://coincodex.com/article/22929/bitcoin-halving-dates/