Bitcoin Gearing Up for a ‘Parabolic’ Rally in Q4? Historical Data Suggests It Might Be

• Bitcoin’s Q4 rally historically has a 73% chance of occurring during halving years.
• Breaking the 200-day EMA is crucial; failure could lead to significant price drops.

In a recent CNF update, we questioned whether the current Bitcoin accumulation matches that of 2019 and if a $100K parabolic rally is imminent. In a turn of events, Bitcoin (BTC) actually started 2024 on a strong note, climbing over 40% year-to-date, driven by positive developments like the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and the halving event, which cut miners’ rewards by 50%.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested in his tweet yesterday that this market cycle could become the longest post-halving in history, indicating either a delayed all-time high or none at all.

An FYI on $BTC
Current bull market cycle in $BTC will soon become the longest time post halving in history for a new ATH
or,
Could indicate that new ATH is not in the cards pic.twitter.com/jkeboVAGtp

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 21, 2024

However, historical data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin typically sees strong returns in Q4 during halving years, with a 73% chance of a rally. CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, noted that Bitcoin’s current accumulation phase might precede a significant uptrend in late 2024.

According to today’s CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin (BTC) has surged by 2.02% in the past day and 5.01% in the past week, reaching a current price of $60,914.78. See BTC price chart below.

It is important to note that Bitcoin’s price faces significant resistance at the 200-day EMA. If BTC fails to break through this level, analysts like Mark Cullen warn that prices could drop towards $57,500 or even revisit the $54,500 level, highlighting the challenges Bitcoin faces in sustaining its bullish momentum.

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