Bitcoin Falls Amid Israel-Iran Tensions—More Volatility Expected

• Bitcoin (BTC) takes a nosedive to $61k after geopolitical tension in the Middle East escalated with more than 180 missiles fired into Israel. 

• An analyst remains optimistic that the price could bounce back as the outcome of the US presidential election becomes clearer. 

Bitcoin (BTC) sharply plunged into a two-week low of $61.3k after geopolitical instability was triggered by reports that Iran has fired at least 180 ballistic missiles into Israel. According to Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the country’s air defense managed to intercept most of the incoming “shots.” However, two people were lightly injured by a fragment of the bomb. 

Major Markets React to the Rising Tension

According to our research, the White House earlier forecasted that there could be an Iranian attack on Israel. This forced a liquidation of $250 million in futures positions in just 24 hours. The US Equities were not also spared as they experienced a sharp sell-off as investors resorted to traditional safe-haven assets. Based on recent data, WTI crude oil prices recorded a 3% surge to surpass $70 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also made a mini bullish reversal of 0.5%, with gold recording an uptick of 1.3% to trade at $2,670 per ounce. Meanwhile, the broad crypto market has been plummeting. 

Bitcoin, for instance, was trading at $61.5K at press time after declining by 3.4% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) was also down by 6% within the period and was trading at $2.4K. Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) were equally down by 4.6%, 5.7%, 8.7%, and 6.3%, respectively, within the same period. 

Bitcoin’s position as a store of value has, over the years, been questioned due to its inconsistent reaction in periods of geopolitical tensions. In April 2024, the price of Bitcoin took an unexpected nosedive following missile exchanges between Iran and Israel. In February 2022, the price of the asset also fell by 9% to $35,000 after Russia invaded Ukraine.  

Regardless, Director of Research at Grayscale Investments Zach Pandl strongly believes that Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets might evolve when its global adoption reaches a significant height. 

Could There be a Rebound for the Bitcoin Price

According to renowned analyst Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin’s performance historically weakens in periods of the US presidential elections.

Per his observation, the bearish situation emanates from the uncertainties surrounding the outcome. However, he anticipates a gain in November and December as the voters’ decision becomes clearer. 

This disparity in performance dissipates in November, and by December, the gap disappears entirely. Once election results are known and markets have a clearer picture of the political landscape, investor confidence typically returns, and the focus shifts back to broader economic and market conditions, allowing Bitcoin’s price movements to normalize across both election and non-election years.

According to another analyst identified as “Bitcoin Archive,” the price of Bitcoin could hit $80.5k in October, $89k in November, and $100,000 in December. 

#Bitcoin will break $100,000 this year if it follows the average gains made after a green September candle.
PROJECTIONS:
• October: $80,518.40
• November: $89,727.02
• December: $106,718.33 pic.twitter.com/KWB8QLcshd— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 1, 2024

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