Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk from Long-Term Holders’ 815,000 BTC Sell-Off

• Bitcoin price falls below $100K due to heavy selling from long-term holders, adding over 815,000 BTC to market supply.

• Nearly $582 million in long liquidations cluster around $98,000, increasing risks of further downside.

• Market shows exhaustion with repeated $100K support tests, influenced by ETF outflows and economic uncertainty; historical data suggests consolidation may follow.

Bitcoin long-term holders selling over 815,000 BTC triggers price drop below $100K. Explore supply overhang, liquidity risks, and market impacts. Stay informed on crypto trends and protect your investments today.

What is causing the recent Bitcoin price drop below $100,000?

Bitcoin long-term holders selling more than 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days has created a substantial supply overhang, weakening price support and pushing the cryptocurrency below the key $100,000 level. This profit-taking activity, the largest since January 2024, coincides with contracting demand and leveraged position vulnerabilities. As a result, Bitcoin traded near $97,813, marking a 4.2% weekly decline amid broader economic concerns.

How much BTC have long-term holders offloaded recently?

Market data from CryptoQuant indicates that wallets holding Bitcoin for six months or longer have distributed over 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days, spanning cohorts from six months to over seven years. This sustained selling mirrors patterns seen at past cycle peaks after prolonged rallies, where experienced investors lock in gains. The influx of supply has eroded buyer conviction, with analysts noting depleted liquidity at critical support levels. For instance, historical comparisons show similar distributions preceded periods of price stabilization, though short-term volatility remains elevated due to these dynamics.

Long-term holders sold over 815,000 BTC in 30 days, creating a major supply overhang and weakening price support amid profit-taking.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin fell below $100K as long-term holders sold over 815,000 BTC, adding heavy supply pressure.
• Nearly $581 million in long liquidations sits around $97,800, raising the risk of a deeper sweep.
• Repeated tests of the $100K support signal market exhaustion amid ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed pressure as its price struggles to maintain the psychological $100,000 mark. After dipping to $100,700 on Wednesday, BTC dropped further, trading near $97,813 at the time of reporting, reflecting a 4.2% decline on the weekly candle. 

The fall comes amid increasing sales from long-term holders and a broader market environment weighed down by economic concerns and risk-off sentiment.

Long-term holders drive selling pressure

According to the market data, long-term Bitcoin holders, wallets that have held BTC for six months or more, have sold more than 815,000 BTC within the last 30 days. This is the largest amount of such activity since January 2024. 

Analysts are speculating that this profit-taking is a repeat of what has been observed in the past cycle peaks where experienced holders sell coins following months-long rallies. 

According to CryptoQuant, this sustained distribution across cohorts ranging from six months to seven-plus years is creating a supply overhang, which weakens price support.

This selling coincides with a significant increase in leveraged positions around key price levels. CoinGlass data indicates that nearly $582.75 million in long leveraged BTC positions cluster near $98,000, highlighting the potential for a sharp price sweep if volatility accelerates. 

The futures traders had earlier been aiming at upside levels of around $110,000 whereas the current market price action is indicating that the market might return to the lows first.

Liquidity compression and market structure

Analysts tracking BTC’s liquidity landscape have noted a growing imbalance between support and resistance. Trader Daan Crypto highlighted a “a big cluster below the local lows at $98K-$100K,” pointing to a series of marginally higher lows forming just above this zone. 

Futures trader Byzantine General also warned that Bitcoin “is likely to sweep the lows around $98,000,” suggesting a potential short-term downside target if selling pressure continues.

Repeated tests of the $100,000-$102,000 support band, now the fourth since May 2025, indicate structural fatigue in the market. Each retest reduces buyer conviction, depletes resting bid liquidity, and increases the likelihood of a breakdown. 

Analyst UBCrypto termed the recent price activity a failed breakout, which is likely an area that should not be purchased until a more active recovery is established.

Market sentiment and broader factors

Sentiment is mixed, although it is weak in the short term. According to data provided by Hyblock Capital, 68.9% of international BTC orders on Binance remain in the long side, which means that numerous traders are defending the $100,000 floor. 

Meanwhile, crypto prices are also affected by macroeconomic events. The recent decline of Bitcoin was related to the general risk-off mood as traders sold tech shares and cryptocurrencies on the fears of economic slump.

The fact that the government of the United States recently opened after the longest shutdown since its inception combined with the hawkish remarks of Fed Chair Jerome Powell has curbed the anticipation of the rate cuts. 

The FedWatch tool has predicted that chances of a rate cut are 66.9% by 85% last week. The data of weak jobs, such as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls decreasing by 50,000 in October and the data of the ADP weekly job losses exceeding 11,000 further kill the market optimism.

Impact on other cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s weakness has also affected the broader crypto market. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH) fell nearly 9.67% trading around $3,131.77, while Solana (SOL) declined about 8.45% to $141.37. XRP (XRP), however, dropped 8% to $2.27 following the launch of a spot ETF providing exposure to the token. 

Top Cryptocurrency Chart – Source: CoinMarketCap

Short-term prospects and investor view

Experts are still split on the way forward of Bitcoin. Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu observed that the BTC might reach new heights in the middle term, but in the short-run, the volatility will probably remain high due to declining institutional investment and ETF withdrawals. 

BitBull CEO Joe DiPasquale, in his turn, believes in a cautiously bullish outlook as Bitcoin uptrend is preserved, with buyers continuously forming support levels and generating higher lows in the market cycles.

Prediction markets, such as Myriad Markets, show a 54.7% probability of Bitcoin reaching $115,000 before falling to $85,000, reflecting a cautious optimism among retail investors. 

Analysts emphasize that the immediate test lies in the $98,000-$100,000 range. If buyers fail to hold this band, the market could experience a deeper correction toward mid-cycle support levels.

Background and recent trends

In October, Bitcoin became the headline when it temporarily reached the all-time high of $125,00. Nevertheless, numerous drops were witnessed in the month before beneath $100,000 prompted by selling off of profits, macroeconomic worry, and ETF withdrawals. 

According to historical trends, the long-term estimates of the periods of heavy selling by holders are often followed by price consolidation before another significant rise.

The volatility is very high and investors are observing main liquidity clusters, support bands and macroeconomic indicators keenly. The coming week will probably decide whether Bitcoin keeps at or above the six-figure range, or trades the same levels as in June 2025 lows near $98,000.

Also Read: Bitcoin to Outperform Gold by 2035: Michael Saylor

Frequently Asked Questions

What triggered the sale of over 815,000 BTC by long-term holders?

Profit-taking after Bitcoin’s rally to $125,000 in October 2025 drove long-term holders to sell over 815,000 BTC in 30 days, the most since January 2024. This activity, tracked by CryptoQuant, stems from historical patterns at cycle peaks where holders distribute coins to secure gains amid market uncertainty.

Will Bitcoin recover above $100,000 soon?

Bitcoin’s recovery above $100,000 depends on holding the $98,000-$100,000 support amid ongoing supply pressure from long-term holders. Experts like BitBull CEO Joe DiPasquale note preserved uptrends with higher lows forming, suggesting potential consolidation before upside, though macroeconomic factors could delay this natural-sounding rebound.

Key Takeaways

• Supply Overhang from Holders: Over 815,000 BTC sold by long-term holders creates downward pressure, echoing past cycle behaviors per CryptoQuant data.
• Liquidity Risks: $582 million in long positions near $98,000 heightens sweep potential, as highlighted by CoinGlass and trader analyses.
• Broader Market Impact: Ethereum and Solana dropped 9% and 8% respectively; monitor Fed policies and ETF flows for recovery signals.

Conclusion

The recent Bitcoin long-term holders selling over 815,000 BTC has intensified supply overhang, contributing to the price drop below $100,000 and testing market resilience. With liquidity clusters at $98,000-$100,000 and macroeconomic headwinds like reduced rate cut expectations, the asset faces short-term challenges. However, historical trends point to consolidation and potential rebound, urging investors to watch support levels closely for the next upward move.