Bitcoin faces bearish risk as U.S. macro clouds outlook – What’s next?

Key Takeaways

U.S. macro conditions show that Bitcoin may plunge soon, even though it has outperformed the S&P 500 in gains. Inflows into Bitcoin remain strong, with ETFs still attracting institutions.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] performance over the past day has underwhelmed investors after it hit a new all-time high of $124,474 on the 14th of August.

Following this peak, the world’s largest cryptocurrency plunged to the $115,000 region within four days—hinting at growing bearish pressure among investors.

Source: TradingView

Chart analysis shows that Bitcoin has now traded into a key support level, which could provide a rebound. While market sentiment points to a possible upside, analysts continue to warn of a looming major decline.

Analysts warn of a decline

U.S. macroeconomic conditions indicate that a downturn could hit Bitcoin, with broader markets likely to follow.

According to ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs)—a macroeconomic metric that tracks investor risk appetite in the U.S.—Bitcoin’s potential movements can often be predicted.

Typically, a spike in this metric precedes a major upswing in Bitcoin’s value, with the asset forming a local bottom. At present, the metric sits in a lower range, suggesting that a slow decline could be underway.

Source: Alphractal

Crypto analyst Joao Wedson notes that bearish sentiment in the U.S. macro landscape has been building since 2022.

He adds that “euphoria is the most likely scenario” before BTC enters an aggressive bear market “sooner or later,” projecting that the path to 2026 favors the bears.

Wedson said

“I believe much of 2026 and beyond will be very bad for the U.S. economy.”

Bitcoin outperforms U.S. market

A comparison of Bitcoin against major stock indexes showed that it continued to outperform the S&P 500. According to Artemis, Bitcoin delivered a 101% gain in the past year, compared to the S&P 500’s 17.2%.

Source: Artemis

This indicated that investors have earned significantly more from holding BTC than the S&P 500, highlighting the asset’s position as a preferred destination for liquidity.

As Bitcoin appeared more profitable, more investors are likely to be drawn in by its performance and potential for higher returns.

U.S. investors drive accumulation

U.S. investors currently lead market accumulation through their strong purchases of BTC spot ETFs.

At press time, total Bitcoin under management reached $152.18 billion, equivalent to 589,260 BTC, since approval in 2024 per CoinGlass.

However, August data shows more outflows than inflows, with total net flows standing at negative $11.5 million—signaling market withdrawals.

Despite this, Bitcoin reserves among U.S. corporations have continued to rise, with companies now holding 4.8% of Bitcoin’s total supply according to CoinGecko.

Notably, in the past day, MetaPlanet purchased $93 million worth of the asset.