Bitcoin Faces 92% Downside Risk, Says Peter Schiff

• Schiff outlines a $10K Bitcoin scenario, implying a 92% drop from recent highs.
• Saylor adds 4,871 BTC as Schiff warns strategy depends on bullish sentiment. 
• Schiff says Bitcoin underperformed stocks, gold, and silver over five years.

Bitcoin suddenly broke above the $72K price tag, trading at $71,400 at press time. Meanwhile, veteran economist Peter Schiff has used the moment to push a fresh bearish scenario, tying price risk to both market structure and geopolitical tension.

He claims that Bitcoin’s upside is limited at current levels, while the pullback risk remains wide open. He sees a more than 90% decline in the price of the world’s largest digital asset.

$10K Scenario and Downside Risk

Schiff outlined a scenario where Bitcoin drops to $10,000 by the end of 2026. This implies a roughly 92% decline from recent highs above $70,000.

His point is not timing but positioning. Even at $10,000, Bitcoin would still rank as a top-performing asset over a 10-year window. But most holders would be deep in losses.

Market Reaction Tied to Iran Tensions

Bitcoin’s previous drop below $70,000 came amid rising geopolitical risk around Iran, including threats of military escalation and the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices higher and kept equities volatile.

Schiff claimed that even the markets are not taking President Donald Trump’s threat seriously, and neither is Iran.

He argued that if investors truly believed in a severe escalation, equities would be lower and oil much higher. Schiff implied that markets are not fully pricing in worst-case outcomes, a disconnect that adds uncertainty across assets, including crypto.

Saylor Accumulates as Schiff Criticizes Bitcoin

Michael Saylor’s firm continues to buy into weakness. The company recently added 4,871 BTC at an average price of $67,718, spending roughly $330 million. Total holdings now stand at 766,970 BTC, acquired for about $58 billion.

Schiff argued that continued buying at these levels depends on maintaining bullish narratives. A sharp pullback would stress that strategy and impact investor confidence in Saylor’s firm as well as BTC.

Schiff continues to put Bitcoin against traditional assets. He argued that over the past five years, Bitcoin has underperformed major equity indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, as well as gold and silver. Based on this scenario, he questions its role as a long-term store of value.

According to Schiff, for BTC investors, the downside risk is high, the upside is capped, and capital is better placed in assets like gold.

Bitcoin supporters push back, pointing to longer timeframes and higher returns since 2020. But Schiff rejects those comparisons, calling them selective.

Related: Schiff Calls Bitcoin a Five-Year Loser, and Saylor Pulls Out a Chart That Says Otherwise