The cryptocurrency market began in 2026 with a wave of renewed optimism as Bitcoin aims to reclaim the psychologically significant $100,000 mark. Michaël van de Poppe highlights that BTC is at a pivotal juncture, indicating that it is “battling the last resistance before a potential surge towards $100K.” His analysis shows an important bit of technical setup with Bitcoin consolidating after range-bound trading and predicting a small CME gap pullback before continuing upwards.
CME Gap and Technical Indicators Display Future Rally
The CME gap is one of the most closely watched technical signals of Bitcoin trading. It’s created when CME Bitcoin futures are dormant over the weekend, but spot markets are open 24/7, which leaves behind price gaps and these gaps are often filled once the markets resume trading. After the holidays, there was a downside gap near $88,200 which turns out to be a possible short-term target.
Bitcoin has traded steadily between $85,000 to $90,000 over the past two weeks or so to produce a Bollinger Bands Squeeze, also known as a compression in volatility, which will often precede sharp moves. BTC has recovered back to its 21-day moving average, which implies better short-term momentum. Notably, Bitcoin has just recently printed three red monthly candles in a row, which in the past has preceded short-term bottoms and rebounds of 30 to 130%.
On-Chain Metrics Indicate Lower Selling Pressure
While price action may seem to be stagnant on the surface, there is on-chain data that the market may be quietly shifting in the background. CryptoQuant indicators show that there is easing sell pressure, even as the macroeconomic uncertainty puts a cap on upside momentum.
One especially bullish indicator comes from supply data from long-term holders. After months of negative reading, the 30-day net change in long-term holder supply has been positive by about 10,700 BTC. This shift implies that long-term investors are ceasing to disburse coins at scale which is a sign of renewed confidence in the prospects of Bitcoin.
Recent data also indicates that there are outflows from exchanges still, more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering them. This trend curbs sell side supply on the spot markets in the near-term but there is no sign that the price moved up, implying that demand is wary, perhaps due to fewer liquid funds and delayed expectations around U.S. rate cuts.
Market Outlook Points to Six Figures Bitcoin
Despite closing 2025 about 6% lower, Bitcoin enters 2026 quite dodgy and with much institutional support and fundamentals looking better. Several analysts are bullish on Bitcoin’s prospects for the year ahead as well, with their prediction for this year varying from $150,000 to as high as $250,000. JPMorgan proposes Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in 2026, assuming sustained institutional adoption and the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has never had back-to-back losing years, and there’s reason to think that Bitcoin can return to form in 2026. However, market participants should remain mindful of immediate resistance levels. There is significant sell-side pressure stacked between $91,000 and $92,000, where a strong momentum break would be needed to clear the path toward $95,000 and eventually $100,000.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin is at key technical levels in early January, traders are searching for confirmation that the correction has run its course. In addition to the technically established indicators there are on-chain signals, and certain historical patterns show that Bitcoin is very close breaking through to the six fig. Van de Poppe has pointed out a pivotal moment in the current trend of Bitcoin where a pullback in the short term could set up the stage for an explosive move towards $100,000 and more.