Bitcoin Eyes $93,500, But Key Resistance Could Drag Price To $80,500

Bitcoin price is currently showing signs of recovery as it aims for the $93,500 level. However, traders remain cautious due to technical resistance that could potentially drive prices lower.

According to analysis from Rekt Capital, BTC is consolidating within a triangular market structure developed by two critical exponential moving averages (EMAs).

BTC recently tested the bottom of the 50-week EMA as support. It is now pressing against the green 21-week EMA resistance at approximately $86,500.

Bull Market EMAs signal crucial Bitcoin price resistance levels

Bitcoin’s price action is currently contained between two important exponential moving averages that generally define bull market behavior.

Last week, BTC tested the bottom of the 50-week EMA as support. This week the price is pushing against the green 21-week EMA resistance level.

According to Rekt Capital’s analysis, Bitcoin is consolidating inside a triangular market structure formed by these two Bull Market EMAs.

A weekly close above the green 21-week EMA and a successful post-breakout retest, as was the case in mid-2021, would be the primary confirming indicator for a breakout.

The 21-week EMA currently sits at approximately $86,500. This makes this the critical level Bitcoin needs to break above and reclaim.

This move is particularly important because it would potentially enable the price to narrow the gap toward the all-important $93,500 reclaim area.

Cycle analysis emphasizes that Bitcoin is experiencing a downside deviation below the previous ReAccumulation Range.

For price to resynchronize with the overall range, BTC will need to reclaim the Range Low of $93,500.

Bitcoin’s Potential Drop to $80,500 if Resistance Holds

If Bitcoin price rejects from the triple-resistance area, a price drop to the $80,500 level becomes increasingly likely.

This level corresponds to the early March lows which previously acted as support but were subsequently lost.

Notably, this support level was never technically reclaimed; instead, price moved upward past it without establishing a proper reclaim pattern.

Rekt Capital suggested that a rejection from current levels would make the $80,500 target logical.

The 50-week EMA (shown in purple on the chart) sitting just below this level, potentially provides secondary support.

The confirmation signals for Bitcoin’s next move are clearly defined in the analysis. BTC needs to reclaim the triple-resistance as support, with a Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA serving as the major confirmation signal of a successful breakout. Until this occurs, price remains positioned at resistance with uncertain direction.

In the meantime, Bitcoin must continue to hold its Daily Downtrend as support. The analysis points out that Bitcoin has already achieved a Daily Close above the Daily Downtrend and successfully retested it as support for the first time.

This post-breakout retesting of the Downtrend is described as “essential” to avoid price playing into a rejection from the Weekly triple-resistance.

If Bitcoin can maintain this support while working to overcome the resistance levels above, it improves the chances for continued upward momentum toward the target recovery level.

Historical RSI Patterns Signal Potential Bottom Confirmation

Last week’s analysis from Rekt Capital examined historical Daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) tendencies and the Bullish Divergences they generate at market bottoms.

The analysis tracked how RSI forms Higher Lows while price makes Lower Lows – a classic bullish divergence pattern that often signals the end of downtrends.

According to the data presented, the historical price difference in forming these Lower Lows has ranged from -0.32% to as much as -8.44%.

In the current cycle, this price distance appears to be -2.79%, falling well within the historical range.

More importantly, on the recent Bitcoin price rally, BTC seems to have solidified its RSI Higher Low formation.

The newsletter points out a consistent pattern: whenever RSI Higher Lows form as part of Bullish Divergences in this cycle, it effectively signals that the price bottom is already established.

This technical observation adds weight to the theory that Bitcoin may have found its local bottom in the recent correction.

For confirmation of this bottom, Bitcoin will need to break convincingly beyond its current Price Downtrend.

Such a move would transition Bitcoin into a new technical uptrend and likely confirm that the bottom of this correction phase is definitively in place.