Bitcoin Eyes $108K as Traders Split, Bulls Stay Cautious

Key Points:

• Bitcoin wallets holding 10–100 BTC are accumulating, while smaller holders continue to distribute steadily.
• Long-term holders cut exposure, with realized cap dropping from $57B to just $3.5B recently.
• Open Interest spikes on Binance hint at possible short-term volatility and leveraged trading risk.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $107,302 at press time, with a 24-hour trading volume of $32.9 billion. Bitcoin price has seen a slight increase of 0.08% in the past 24 hours and 2.53% over the last seven days. The upward movement has brought the market’s attention back to the $108,000 mark, a level that is testing current market sentiment.

Glassnode data shows no clear pattern across wallet cohorts. Wallets holding between 1 and 10 BTC continue to reduce their holdings, suggesting ongoing distribution. In contrast, wallets with 10 to 100 BTC are accumulating. The overall Accumulation Trend Score has moved up from 0.25 to 0.57, indicating growing market engagement, but without full alignment across investor groups.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. reviewed behavior from long-term holders (LTHs) during past market cycles. According to Adler, each of BTC’s three major rallies was preceded by consistent LTH accumulation. He pointed out three phases: at $28K before the rise to $60K, around $60K before the move to $100K, and now again near $100K.

At present, the long-term to short-term holder ratio is rising. Adler suggested that, if this cycle follows the same trend as past rallies, a breakout could occur in four to eight weeks. Applying a conservative multiplier of 1.6 to the current Bitcoin price, a potential future target would lie around $160K.

Bitcoin Price Movement Linked to Trading Behavior

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted a sharp increase in Binance Open Interest (OI), which has crossed 6% for the third time in two months. Each prior occurrence—May 26 and June 10—was followed by short-term Bitcoin price dips or consolidation. The repeated pattern may suggest increased risk exposure among leveraged traders.

In addition, a steep drop in LTH Net Position Realized Cap was observed. This metric, which reflects the realized value of BTC held by long-term investors, has fallen from over $57 billion to $3.5 billion. This trend indicates long-term holders are taking profits after strong price growth, reducing their exposure to potential volatility.

Bitcoin Trading Volume Signals Cooling, Not Reversal

Notably, recent trading volume data points to a cooling market without signs of overheating. A bubble chart tracking total exchange activity shows that while Bitcoin is near its all-time high, trading volumes are stable or declining. This suggests consolidation rather than rapid inflows or panic-driven exits.

Analysts note that for Bitcoin to surpass its previous peak, external factors such as interest rate changes or regulatory updates may play a role. For now, the market remains active but measured. Bitcoin continues to show strength, even as investor behavior reflects a mix of caution and selective accumulation.