Bitcoin – Examining if BTC could rally +20% before bears step in

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin shows bullish potential as whale deposits drop $2.25B, stablecoin inflows hit $1.7B, and STH MVRV remains low, despite weak sentiment, on-chain metrics support further upside toward $136K.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV remained well below the historic 1.35 threshold, at press time, offering room for further growth before profit-taking pressure emerges. 

Bitcoin was trading around $119K, and the STH MVRV hovered around 1.15, suggesting unrealized profits are still modest.

Historically, BTC has room to rally by 20%–25% before major selling kicks in at elevated MVRV levels. 

Therefore, this could provide a bullish window for short-term momentum. The market remains cautiously optimistic, with price action supported by low STH profit-taking risk in the immediate term.

Source: CryptoQuant

Are Bitcoin whales losing their appetite to sell?

Binance’s whale-to-exchange flow chart reveals a $2.25 billion drop in deposits, falling from 6.75 billion to just 4.5 billion in thirty days. 

This steep decline reflects reduced selling pressure among major holders, who appear more inclined to hold rather than liquidate. 

Historically, a sharp retreat in whale deposits has preceded bullish price movement. Therefore, the current trend supports a more favorable short-term outlook. 

With large players stepping back from selling, retail traders could gain confidence to drive prices upward, assuming accumulation sustains.

Source: CryptoQuant

Do stablecoin inflows hint at strategic accumulation?

Over $1.7 billion in stablecoins flowed into Binance and HTX within 24 hours on the 16he of July, with Binance recording $895 million and HTX adding $819 million. 

Such synchronized inflows typically reflect planned capital deployment by institutions or large entities preparing to buy crypto assets.

When paired with reduced whale deposits, this trend signals strong buying interest and reduced selling intent. 

Therefore, this capital movement may mark the beginning of strategic accumulation, often preceding major rallies, especially when it coincides with improving macro or on-chain dynamics.

Source: CryptoQuant

Does dormant supply still support the current BTC rally?

Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric saw a modest 2.35% increase to 34.45 million, pointing to limited activity among older coins. 

Although there is slight movement, the lack of a major spike in CDD suggests long-term holders remain inactive.

Therefore, the supply side remains tight, creating a favorable setup for price appreciation. 

This restrained behavior reinforces the bullish undertone, especially when combined with falling whale deposits and fresh capital inflows from stablecoins.

For now, older supply appears to be firmly locked away.

Source: CryptoQuant

Why is sentiment bearish despite bullish on-chain signals?

As of writing, Weighted Sentiment remained negative at -0.226, while Social Dominance felln to 26% after recent highs above 35%. This divergence suggests that despite improving fundamentals, retail interest is cooling. 

Therefore, the market could be approaching a phase of disbelief, where price rallies unfold without widespread retail support. This dynamic is common in the early stages of bull cycles. 

While sentiment may lag, the combination of on-chain strength, dormant supply, and capital inflows could eventually drive renewed confidence if BTC maintains its current trend.

Source: Santiment

Despite weak sentiment, strong on-chain signals suggest BTC has room for more upside. Falling whale deposits, rising stablecoin inflows, and a non-threatening STH MVRV all support further gains. 

Therefore, BTC could continue climbing until profit-taking zones emerge above the 1.35 MVRV mark.