Bitcoin Euphoria at Peak, 99.3% of UTXOs in Profit—But Shorting BTC Now Could Be Dangerous: Analysis

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns that the current Bitcoin euphoric phase began two weeks ago, making shorting now a risky bet.

Bitcoin surged near $94,000 last Wednesday, marking a historic peak for the leading crypto. This milestone fueled speculation about a potential short-term pause in its rally, with market watchers closely monitoring its next move toward the $100,000 mark. 

However, the days following this high were marked by volatility as Bitcoin repeatedly dipped below $87,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has stabilized above $90,000. Analysts believe the bull run is still ongoing, with crypto trading slightly around $92,000 at press time. 

Euphoria Signals a Critical Phase

As noted by Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the recent rally coincided with heightened euphoria. According to Young Ju’s data, 99.3% of Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) are currently in profit, a metric historically associated with euphoric bull market phases. 

These levels often align with major price rallies, including previous 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks. His analysis suggests that such euphoric phases can last three to twelve months, barring anomalies like the November 2021 bull trap. 

However, according to the CryptoQuant CEO, the current euphoric phase began two weeks ago. He suggested that shorting Bitcoin now could be a risky endeavor—either trying to catch the top of the market or betting against the rally at the bottom of a parabolic bull run.

#Bitcoin euphoria is here.

99.3% of UTXOs are in profit now. Everyone’s happy. This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov ’21 bull trap).

This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run. pic.twitter.com/bjHKTuNKGf

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 19, 2024

Liquidation Levels and Halving Patterns

Further analysis by Daan Crypto Trades highlighted liquidation clusters around the $93,000 mark, indicating significant market activity near the all-time high. His Binance BTC/USDT Liquidation Map suggests that prolonged consolidation at this level could trigger further price surges as traders’ positions build up. 

Concurrently, Aurelien Ohayon underscored the role of Bitcoin’s halving cycles in driving bull markets. His chart revealed a recurring pattern of 500-day bull runs following each halving, with the current cycle suggesting a potential price target of $300,000.

Historical Trends and Diverging Views

Elsewhere, comparisons offered by Samson Mow and Alex Thorn presented historical perspectives of Bitcoin’s trajectory. Mow’s analysis showed that while current cycle trends align with past cycles, this phase exhibits unique growth patterns. 

On his hand, Thorn noted that Bitcoin’s performance is consistent with historical trends and has outperformed the 2015-2017 cycle.