 
 
Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Shiba Inu are grappling with short-term losses, but analysts suggest a decisive move could be on the horizon. João Wedson, crypto analyst and Founder & CEO of Alphractal, believes the coming weeks may bring the final surge of the current cycle, urging traders to remain cautious.
Wedson noted that most investors lose money by following hype instead of positioning during quiet phases. “The rule is clear: buy when no one wants it and sell when everyone is talking about it,” he wrote on X.
He advised those holding losing positions to exit once prices recover to their average cost, leaving no more than 10% behind to avoid further risk.
Debate over Bitcoin’s cycle peak
The analyst also weighed in on a growing debate over whether Bitcoin has outgrown its traditional four-year cycle. Some macro observers argue that global liquidity conditions could delay the next all-time high until 2026.
On-chain data, however, suggests that a peak could be nearer. Wedson pointed to the “Max Intersect SMA Model,” which he described as historically accurate in signaling cycle tops. As of September 14, the model sat at around $58,170 and could trigger a peak once it crosses $69,000.
 
Market pressures and positioning
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $119,888, up 2% on the day and nearly 6% lower over the week. The asset is up 69% year-on-year, with a market cap of $2.38 trillion. Trading volume has increased by 23% over the past 24 hours to $73.1 billion, indicating rising volatility.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market gained 2.4% in 24 hours, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 51, reflecting a state of fear. Outflows from spot ETFs added further pressure, with $258 million withdrawn in a single day, led by Fidelity’s FBTC.
Whales also unloaded 115,000 BTC in August, the largest sell-off since 2022, which pushed prices below $109,000. Analysts warn that resistance near $114,000 could spark further declines. Fortunately, ETF inflows and institutional buyers are helping to cushion some of the pressure as markets seek stability.