Since yesterday, there have been circulating forecasts that the news of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs could be announced on Friday.
This hypothesis comes from the statements of FOX Business Network (FBN) correspondent Charles Gasparino.
Gasparino’s hypothesis: the latest predictions regarding news on Bitcoin ETFs
Gasparino reported that according to internal sources from BlackRock, there are rumors that the amount of bureaucratic procedures that the SEC still needs to handle is such that it is likely that the announcement will only be made towards the end of the week.
Someone else speculates that the agency is taking all the necessary time to examine the dozen requests it has received in this regard, in order to determine whether they are approvable or not.
In light of this, it seems unlikely that the announcement of the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs could come before Friday, and the best time could be just after the closing of traditional markets for the weekend.
In reality, the SEC has until next Wednesday, but last week there were hypotheses circulating that the agency could announce approval as early as today or tomorrow.
Apparently, today will start the last phase of analysis which, however, could still turn out to be quite long.
In the event that the announcement is actually made on Friday with the stock market closed, the SEC would have taken almost four days to validate all the procedures. It should be noted that some of the final versions of these requests were filed last Friday, and that yesterday the SEC did not work due to the holiday.
The impact on the price of Bitcoin
Gasparino’s hypothesis was published yesterday in the late evening, when the BTC price was around $43,500.
To tell the truth, already in the first part of the day the price had risen, from $42,200 to $42,700, and in the hours just before the news given by Gasparino it had made a small jump from $42,700 to $43,800, and then repositioned itself around $43,500.
However, as soon as the news started to spread, especially relayed by some X profiles of crypto journalism, the price of Bitcoin started to rise again.
Within just over two hours, it jumped from $43,500 to $45,400, and then rose to $45,500 in the following hours. Later, it settled back at $45,400.
However, this rise is not only due to the publication of Gasparino’s indiscretion, which probably only served as the trigger for a rise that probably would have happened anyway.
The Asian markets
In fact, a few hours later, at the opening of the Asian markets, movements compatible with the rise in the price of Bitcoin occurred.
It is possible that crypto markets have anticipated those movements while traditional stock exchanges are still closed.
In particular, Chinese yuan exchanges opened sharply lower, simultaneously with a small rise in the US dollar.
Since in the meantime the Hong Kong stock exchange opened sharply lower, it is not absurd to imagine that there may have been an intervention by the Chinese central bank that injected liquidity. This would justify both the decline of the yuan and the rise of the dollar and Bitcoin, and would make perfect sense given the decline of the Hong Kong stock exchange.
Let’s not forget that the Hang Seng index has been declining for almost 12 months now, and although the lowest point of this descent was reached on December 11th, the current value is only 4.6% higher.
It is not clear if the Chinese central bank intervened today, as the data it publishes is not up to date, but since the yuan has been continuously declining from April to September 2023 while the PBoC was injecting liquidity into the market, such a hypothesis seems at least plausible.
Bitcoin ETF Predictions: Beware of Sell the News
Once again yesterday, the price of Bitcoin increased after the publication of an unconfirmed rumor, in perfect buy the rumors style.
The fact is that when purchases occur following the publication of unconfirmed hypotheses, then maybe these are followed by sales triggered by the publication of the definitive news, in perfect sell the news style.
The famous saying that circulates in the markets goes like this: “buy the rumors, sell the news”.
Although in theory there could still be room for further price increases of Bitcoin, until Friday, what is happening now seems just like an attempt by the markets to price in the possible news of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
If the news were to come out on Friday, it wouldn’t be surprising if at that point the price of BTC could retrace a bit.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2024/01/02/bitcoin-etf-predictions-fridays-final-news/