Bitcoin ETF Boom May Unlock $60T Despite Institutional Caution—Bitwise

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn massive flows since their U.S. debut in January 2024. Collectively, they garnered roughly $35–36 billion in net inflows in 2024.

The pace has slowed in 2025 (about $4.0 billion by April 30, 2025), but rebounded with more than $5 billion added in May alone.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and others have seen sustained inflows (a 30‑day no‑outflows streak in mid-May).

By contrast, flows into gold’s flagship ETF (SPDR Gold Shares, GLD) have been muted. GLD’s holdings recently ticked up to 904.38 tonnes by late Feb. 2025 (reflecting early 2025 demand), but flipped to modest outflows thereafter.

In the week to May 23, for example, GLD shed about 3.2 tonnes ($200 million) of bullion even as Bitcoin funds absorbed $1.2 billion.

Ballooning Bitcoin ETF Flows, Lagging Gold Inflows

Through 2024, the new Bitcoin ETFs raced out of the gate. U.S. filings show roughly $11.8 billion had flowed in by April 30, 2024 (the first 3½ months) – compared with only $4.0 billion by the same date in 2025.

Full-year 2024 inflows reached about $35.4 billion. That same period, the largest gold ETF saw far less net buying. Global gold funds (led by GLD) did see a surge in Q1 2025 – an inflow of 226.5 tonnes ($21.1 billion) – but the pace has since waned.

For example, State Street’s gold ETFs (GLD and GLDM) drew only about $0.48 billion into GLD over five days in mid-March. By May, GLD holdings were being pared back. In one week to May 23, GLD lost roughly 3.2 tonnes ($200 million) while Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of over $1.2 billion in the same span.

Bitcoin’s price performance underscores the trend. The crypto has roughly doubled since early 2024. It traded near $40,000 in mid-January. 2024 (having just broken through its January 11 ETF-era high) and later surged to all-time peaks by mid-2025.

On May 21, 2025, for instance, Bitcoin rallied above $109,760. That rally – far sharper than gold’s – has helped fuel investor interest in Bitcoin funds even as gold remains a portfolio hedge. Gold itself hit record prices over $3,000 per ounce in 2025, drawing safe-haven inflows.

Bitwise Forecasts Huge Institutional Demand

Analysts at Bitwise Asset Management see years of growth ahead. In a recent report (with UTXO Management), Bitwise predicts roughly $120 billion of new institutional flows into Bitcoin by end-2025 and about $300 billion in 2026.

To put that in context, wealth managers and wirehouses globally oversee about $60 trillion in client assets. A Bitwise scenario assumes these firms allocate only a few tenths of a percent of assets to Bitcoin.

At 0.2% exposure, for example, $60 trillion would translate into $120 billion invested in Bitcoin ETFs. Aggregating such modest allocations could flip trillions on and off the blockchain.

Indeed, the Bitwise/UTXO model anticipates institutions holding roughly 20% of all BTC (4.2 million coins) by end-2026, as corporations, governments and funds gradually build Bitcoin treasuries.

Even by early 2024 standards, Bitcoin ETF growth has been astonishing. Bitwise notes that U.S. spot Bitcoin funds amassed about $36.2 billion of inflows in their first year (through end-2024).

That made them the fastest-growing ETF ever, roughly 20 times faster than gold’s GLD did in its first year. ETF assets under management (AUM) swelled to $125 billion in 12 months, far outpacing GLD’s early trajectory.

Bitwise expects the bull run in ETF inflows to continue: they forecast Bitcoin ETFs could see roughly $100 billion in annual inflows by 2027.

Institutions Remain Cautious

Despite the momentum, much institutional money remains parked on the sidelines. Major banks have been cautious, citing compliance and risk policies.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were the first wirehouse to let advisors recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs (in limited cases). But other titans – JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc. – have so far not opened the gates.

Why the hold-up? Compliance teams want more track record and regulatory clarity before allowing crypto exposure. Getting a new product approved is “extremely arduous,” says a wealth-industry analyst, with “all kinds of groups – due diligence, compliance, business management, field oversight, etc. – within Morgan Stanley that have to get comfortable with it”.

In practice, that caution has had a real impact. Bitwise estimates that roughly $35 billion of Bitcoin demand was effectively “sidelined” in 2024 by risk-averse corporate policies at firms like Morgan and Goldman.

Those firms collectively manage about $60 trillion, so their full adoption could unleash huge capital. For now, they have made clear they want to see multi‑year ETF performance before allowing clients to buy – a stepwise approach that may take some quarters or years to satisfy.