 
 
Bitcoin enters December with a historically mixed track record, often characterized by sharp outliers and erratic flows.
Analyst Daan Crypto notes that recent years have been relatively muted, but the turn of the year is a prime window for unusual market behavior. Large holders and funds typically rebalance portfolios during this period, while tax-loss harvesting can introduce abrupt downside pressure.
With 2025 closing out and 2026 approaching, traders are being urged to stay positioned “in a way that feels comfortable,” as unpredictable flows tend to dominate the month.
Forecasts for the next cycle are equally divided. Analyst Bit Quant argues that Bitcoin is far from an euphoric top, saying the current cycle is unlikely to produce a $200K blow-off and instead reflects “early-stage adoption” rather than maturity.
Meanwhile, PlanB highlighted Bitcoin’s November close at $90,382, calling the signal “mixed” as spot ETF flows, miner stress, and macro tightening create conflicting narratives.
 
Technically, Bitcoin is rejected from the underside of a megaphone pattern, and momentum remains weak. Some analysts still expect a relief rally toward $100K–$115K, but they warn it could precede a 6–12-month corrective phase, depending on macro triggers and ISM data.
Three structural forces now guide December’s direction. Miners are under severe margin stress, with hashprice falling to $35/PH/s and payback periods stretching beyond 1,000 days. Public mining stocks have dropped up to 50%, and more forced selling may follow after miners unloaded 2,000+ BTC in November.
Asia’s regulatory tightening adds pressure, with China explicitly reaffirming its ban and Japan’s surging bond yields threatening the yen carry trade, a liquidity engine for crypto since 2020.
Finally, whale-level accumulation contrasts sharply with ETF outflows, creating a tug-of-war between long-term conviction buyers and short-term de-risking.
With that, December’s trajectory hinges on which side dominates: miner capitulation or institutional absorption. A clean reclaim of $100K would ease liquidity concerns, but a breakdown to $80K leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper shakeout.