Bitcoin defies September slump: Mapping BTC’s path to $130K

Key Takeaways 

How has Bitcoin performed in September 2025?

BTC gained 8%, held $116K support, RSI balanced at 57, and Parabolic SAR confirmed bullish continuation despite seasonal weakness.

What on-chain and derivatives data highlight BTC resilience?

NVM Ratio slipped to 2.3, Exchange Reserves shrank, and Long/Short Ratio hit 1.20, signaling conviction toward $123K resistance and possibly $130K.

Bitcoin [BTC] has broken from its historical September weakness, climbing over 8% this month while holding strong near $117K, defying years of negative seasonal patterns. 

The charts showed Bitcoin sustaining an ascending structure, supported by on-chain resilience and growing derivatives activity. 

In contrast to earlier Septembers characterized by profit-taking, the market has thus far demonstrated conviction as Exchange Reserves decreased and leveraged longs gained momentum. 

These shifts raise the possibility that September 2025 may not just avoid losses, but instead set up Bitcoin for fresh highs.

Can Bitcoin’s trendline defense unlock another breakout?

The daily chart indicated Bitcoin held firmly above its ascending trendline, validating this level as strong structural support for months. 

Buyers defended each retest, keeping momentum intact while price hovered near $116K. Resistance concentrated between $122K and $123.7K remained the key barrier to unlock price discovery.

At press time, RSI stood at 57, reflecting balanced momentum with room for upside. The Parabolic SAR dots stayed below the price, reinforcing bullish continuation.

Source: TradingView

NVM ratio reset aligns price with network growth

The Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) Ratio dropped to 2.35 as of writing, reflecting a 7.5% decline as network activity lags behind market capitalization.

Historically, such cooling phases reduced overheated valuations and helped prices align with network fundamentals. This reset supported the case for sustainable upside over speculative spikes.

Therefore, Bitcoin’s resilience is being reinforced by healthier valuation dynamics that support the ongoing bullish narrative.

Source: CryptoQuant

Are leveraged longs building the fuel for a stronger rally?

On the Derivatives front, the Long/Short Ratio showed 54.58% of traders positioned long against 45.42% short, at the time of writing.

This tilt toward longs indicated traders were increasingly confident in Bitcoin’s ability to push higher, even amid profit-taking risks. 

While heavy long exposure can increase volatility, it also reinforces demand at critical levels. Sustained conviction from leveraged accounts often accelerates rallies once resistance zones weaken. 

This pattern also suggested that if $123K breaks, long dominance could magnify upward momentum, propelling Bitcoin toward the next psychological threshold around $130K.

Source: CoinGlass

Conclusively, Bitcoin is rewriting its September story with structural support, cooling valuations, and growing speculative confidence aligning together. 

The pressing question now is whether Bitcoin can fully overturn its “September curse” by securing a decisive monthly close above $123K and positioning itself for fresh all-time highs.