Bitcoin is flashing some of its starkest warning signals since the last cycle peak. Now a fresh death cross, a bear-market roadmap into late 2026, and nearly 10,000 BTC rushing onto exchanges are forcing traders to rethink the rally.
Bitcoin Death Cross Forms as Traders Weigh Mixed Signal
Bitcoin has printed a “death cross” on the daily chart as its 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day line, reviving debate over what comes next for the market. The crossover, highlighted by analyst Borg Cryptos, appears with BTC trading near $96,000 while the 50-day average hovers around $110,323 and the 200-day around $110,455 on OKX’s BTCUSDT pair.
Bitcoin MA Crossover Chart. Source: X
In technical analysis, a death cross often signals weakening momentum after a sustained uptrend. However, previous instances on this chart show a mixed record. In the last two crossovers, Bitcoin went on to stage strong rallies, with price climbing sharply in the months that followed the signal. Those moves came while the broader trend still leaned bullish and before a clear market peak formed.
By contrast, Borg notes that when a similar crossover appeared after a cycle top in an earlier period, it aligned with the start of a prolonged bear market. This history now shapes how traders interpret the latest signal. Some see the pattern as a potential shakeout within a larger uptrend, while others point to the post-top example as a reminder that the same indicator once preceded a deeper downturn.
Trader Cameron Fous Maps Deep Bitcoin Bear Market Into Late 2026
Trader Cameron Fous says a Bitcoin bear market has started and projects a multi-year drop before the next major rally. In a new BTC/USD weekly chart, he outlines a potential bottom between $57,000 and $37,000 around December 2026, calling on followers to “prepare to buy that dip” once price reaches his target zone.
Bitcoin Long-Term Cycle Projection. Source: X
Fous bases the forecast on previous cycle drawdowns and Fibonacci retracement levels. His chart highlights how earlier peaks in 2018 and 2022 were followed by long declines that lasted roughly 12 to 14 months and retraced into the 0.5–0.786 Fibonacci range. He now plots a similar path from the current cycle high, with Bitcoin breaking below its key moving average and then sliding into a green support box that covers the $57,000–$37,000 band.
At the same time, the chart sketches a recovery once that zone is reached. After the projected low in late 2026, Fous expects Bitcoin to base at those Fibonacci levels and then grind higher toward new all-time highs. His scenario frames the latest sell-off as the early phase of a larger downtrend, while suggesting that the next major accumulation opportunity could emerge only after an extended period of weakness.
Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Jump as Nearly 10,000 BTC Hit Trading Platforms
More than 10,000 Bitcoin—worth nearly $1 billion—have moved onto centralized exchanges in the past 72 hours, according to on-chain analyst Ali. The latest spike appears on Santiment data, which tracks exchange supply, inflows and BTC’s spot price over the same period.
Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Chart. Source: Santiment / Ali Charts
The chart shows a clear uptick in inflows while Bitcoin trades under pressure, highlighting renewed selling activity or positioning ahead of volatility. Exchange supply has edged higher as these coins arrive, signaling that holders are transferring BTC out of cold storage and into markets where it can be sold or redeployed.
At the same time, BTC’s price action has weakened, with the increase in inflows aligning with sharper intraday swings. Analysts often view these surges as signs of rising short-term risk, since large wallets typically move funds onto exchanges before executing trades.