Bitcoin Crash Or Moon?

Although I have been bearish for a long time and remain so, I am impressed by bitcoin and ethereum’s resilience in their bear markets.

The idea—although I’m not a believer in it—that bitcoin is an inflation hedge is giving it some strength and the tensions in Ukraine are just the sort of tailwinds that help to keep crypto aloft.

The market call is a simple one, up a lot or down a lot. We can all agree that crypto is the most volatile market out there so I think it’s also fair to agree that if it goes bullish it will rise significantly or if it falls then we will see a near halving from these levels.

So which is it?

Here is the chart:

Bulls will see the following chart as the way forwards with a massive and wide channel that suggest a higher high, in the next few months with bitcoin grinding on up.

This is the scenario:

I would not be so optimistic because bull pivots most often happen from a W bottom not a V. So with that in mind here is an amended road map with the bearish possibility added in:

The bear projection is the thesis I’ve been expecting for months now but it simply won’t happen if the balloon goes up in Ukraine.

We will find up soon enough.

Meanwhile Ethereum will continue to tag along: