Bitcoin: Could the U.S. Government shutdown spoil BTC’s ‘Uptober’ rally?

Key Takeaways 

What are analysts expecting for Bitcoin amid the shutdown? 

Views were mixed, with Options skew leaning bearish and BTC capped at $118K resistance despite spiking to $116K.

Is a Q4 rally still possible for BTC? 

Yes, according to Swissblock, a local bottom could be formed soon. 

Bitcoin [BTC] and the broader crypto market face uncertainty after the U.S. government shutdown kicked off. Lawmakers failed to agree on funding bills, leaving traders to price in prolonged gridlock.

As of press time, the market expected the standoff to extend for 15 days, per the prediction site Polymarket.  But the near-term outlook was mixed, according to analysts. 

Since 2013, BTC has witnessed five shutdowns, but only rallied in three. 

Source: X

However, gold rallied to a new high, underscoring a short-term market uncertainty as the shutdown began. On the contrary, S&P Futures slipped lower. Which begs the question: will BTC follow gold or U.S. equities? 

BTC short-term outlook

BTC spiked to $116K, at press time, after the shutdown. However, it was uncertain whether it could extend the recovery in the near term.

According to Greg Magadini, Director at Options platform, Amberdata, another dip in BTC was feasible in the next few days. 

Source: Amberdata

He cited slightly negative Options pricing (Risk Reversal Skew, RR-Skew) for the short-dated expiries for 1-week and 1-month tenors. It meant more demand for puts (bearish bets, hedging) over calls (bullish bets) in the near term. 

Magadini added, 

“The RR-Skew is merely “leaning” negative. To me, this remains the play going into the next week or two. A lot of reasons to be defensive here and crypto options plays aren’t crowded for defensive trade, in my opinion.”

Shutdown ripple effects

Meanwhile, an extended shutdown would delay the U.S. Jobs Report on the 3rd of October and make it harder to gauge the labor market.

According to some analysts, the delay could prompt the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the next meeting scheduled for the end of October. 

Overall, this could spoil the “Uptober” hopes. Even so, Swissblock analysts said Q4 still looked structurally positive.

They cited Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit nearing a level that previously marked local bottoms.

Source: Glassnode/Swissblock

On the price charts, BTC reversed the losses seen in late September. But a convincing uptrend to $120K and above could be confirmed only if it rallies above the previous month’s high ($118K).

Otherwise, another price rejection at $118K hurdle could drag BTC lower to $112K or $107K-$109K support zone again. 

Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView