Bitcoin Could See Q4 Rally If It Holds $107K and ETFs Absorb Outflows

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Will BTC go up in Q4? Bitcoin could stage a final leg higher in Q4 if it holds the $107K–$109K support zone and ETF demand returns; sustained ETF inflows and a daily close above $112K would increase odds of a rally toward $114K–$118K.

• Key support: $107K–$109K (critical zone for Q4 upside)

• ETF flows: continued outflows pressure price; absorbing LTH supply could flip momentum

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Technical triggers: daily close above $112K and OBV holding H2 support would confirm rebound

Will BTC go up in Q4? Front-loaded primary keyword: See if BTC holds $107K support — learn catalysts, ETF flows, and target levels. Read the outlook now.

What is the outlook for BTC in Q4?

Will BTC go up in Q4 depends on whether Bitcoin defends the $107K–$109K support band and on renewed ETF demand. If the support holds and ETFs begin net inflows again, BTC can retake momentum and target $114K–$118K within Q4.

Will BTC ETFs fuel the next leg up?

ETF demand is the most actionable catalyst short-term. This week BTC ETFs posted large outflows — daily outflow $367 million (22 Sep) and a spike to $418 million on Friday, producing weekly outflows of $902.5 million.

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If ETF products absorb long-term holder (LTH) selling, price stabilization could follow. Conversely, ongoing outflows will likely keep price pressure through the end of Q3 and into Q4.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will BTC go up again?

Bitcoin is likeliest to rally when the $107K–$109K support holds, ETF products flip to sustained inflows, and technical indicators (daily close > $112K and OBV support intact) confirm momentum. Expect clearer direction in early Q4 if these conditions align.

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How do ETF flows affect Bitcoin price?

ETF flows directly affect spot demand: net inflows add buying pressure and can absorb seller supply, while large outflows (example: $902.5M weekly outflows) increase downward pressure and reduce odds of an immediate rally.

What technical levels matter for BTC near-term?

Key levels: $107K–$109K support zone, immediate bullish thresholds at $112K (daily close), and upside targets at $114K and $118K. Losing the support band risks a fall toward $105K or $100K.

Key Takeaways 

Will BTC go up in Q4?

Analysts say BTC could print a final leg higher in Q4 if it defends the $107K support band and ETF demand recovers.

What will be the next rally catalyst?

Renewed institutional demand through ETFs absorbing LTH selling could flip price momentum to positive.

Bitcoin (BTC) erased September gains after slipping to $108K, a 7% dip from the month high of $117.9K. From a record peak of $124.4K, BTC was down about 12% at press time, prompting renewed debate on near-term direction.

Swissblock analysts noted BTC’s bullish structure remains intact and said a “final” leg up could be likely in Q4 if key conditions are met. “Despite trading close to $107.3K, the prior local low from August’s correction, the structure is holding. Bitcoin shows signs it may be preparing for a final round.”

Per the Swissblock proprietary model, the “high risk level” was triggered during July, mid‑August, and mid‑September local tops. As of press time, the model sat in a “low risk regime,” suggesting potential upside before another local top.

By contrast, momentum stayed negative despite BTC holding above $108K. Swissblock flagged long-term holder (LTH) sell pressure consistent with late-cycle behavior.

The analytics firm said that if BTC ETFs absorb the LTH dump, price could stabilize and rally. Unfortunately, demand for ETF products dropped this week, with a Daily Outflow of $367 million on 22 September and a Friday spike to $418 million, producing Weekly Outflows of $902.5 million.

If outflows persist, Bitcoin could remain under pressure through the end of Q3. Historically, Q4 has been one of the strongest periods for BTC, with above‑average returns, making the upcoming quarter critical for medium-term positioning.

What’s next for the BTC price?

Will BTC hold above $109K, which also mirrors the short‑term holder (STH) realized price? The $107.5K–$109.7K support band has been crucial for Q3; losing it could accelerate a dip toward $105K or $100K.

Before downside continues, On Balance Volume (OBV) needs to crack H2 support to confirm a deeper decline. If OBV holds and price posts a daily close above $112K, a rebound toward $114K and $118K becomes feasible.

Key Takeaways

• Support first: $107K–$109K is the linchpin for Q4 upside.
• ETF flows matter: Net inflows could absorb selling and trigger a rally; outflows increase downside risk.
• Technical confirmation: A daily close > $112K and OBV stability would support targets at $114K–$118K.

Conclusion

Will BTC go up in Q4? The path hinges on holding the $107K–$109K support band and a return to positive ETF demand. Traders should watch ETF flows, OBV, and daily closes above $112K for confirmation. COINOTAG will monitor developments and update this outlook as fresh data arrives.

Source: Swissblock; Source: CryptoQuant; Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

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