Bitcoin’s price could experience another dramatic collapse before its next major rally, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, who believes investors have yet to understand the long-term nature of the asset they hold.
Speaking during the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Budki painted a picture of a maturing yet misunderstood market — one where human psychology, not technology, drives the extremes of price.
“The Next Big Drop Will Be Brutal — But Not Fatal”
Budki warned that Bitcoin could fall by as much as 70% in its next market downturn, possibly within the next two years. He attributed the potential crash not to flaws in Bitcoin’s design, but to the behavior of retail investors who still view it as a speculative trading vehicle rather than a monetary network.
“When markets cool, inexperienced investors panic because they don’t truly grasp Bitcoin’s purpose,” Budki explained. “They’re chasing price action, not understanding utility — and those are the first hands to sell during fear cycles.”
He emphasized that such corrections are natural for Bitcoin’s growth trajectory, arguing that volatility has been part of the network’s DNA since inception. “Bitcoin could drop to $70,000, and it would still remain one of the most useful financial tools ever created,” he added.
Long-Term Outlook: A Path Toward $1 Million
Despite warning of a sharp retracement, Budki is far from bearish. He believes Bitcoin’s broader adoption curve remains intact and expects it to reach or surpass $1 million per coin within the next decade. His reasoning blends both speculative demand and functional adoption — he predicts that as more institutions, payment processors, and even governments integrate Bitcoin into real-world systems, long-term demand will far outweigh short-term volatility.
Budki’s view reflects a growing consensus among venture investors who see Bitcoin as transitioning from a speculative commodity into a core financial instrument. “Speculation drives discovery, but utility sustains value,” he said. “The next generation of investors won’t just hold Bitcoin to get rich — they’ll use it to move, save, and store value globally.”
Has the Four-Year Cycle Really Ended?
The debate over Bitcoin’s famous four-year halving cycle has divided analysts. Once regarded as the main engine behind Bitcoin’s price booms, the cycle is increasingly seen as outdated.
We’re in the most bullish quarter of the 4-year cycle. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/cYXgBMcGQp
— Root 🥕 (@therationalroot) October 10, 2025
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently argued that macroeconomic forces now overshadow Bitcoin’s internal issuance schedule. In his view, global interest rate policy and money supply growth play a much bigger role in shaping market direction than the traditional halving events that used to spark bull runs.
Others, however, believe the pattern persists. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, insists that Bitcoin’s price behavior still reflects cyclical investor sentiment, not just macroeconomics. “As long as people treat Bitcoin like a high-risk growth asset rather than a hedge, the market will continue to move in recognizable cycles,” Rocca said.
Institutional Players Redefine Market Dynamics
What has changed most since Bitcoin’s early years is who holds it. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET, large entities — including corporations, governments, ETFs, and exchanges — now collectively own more than 4 million BTC, nearly one-fifth of total supply. This growing institutional presence has introduced deeper liquidity and greater price stability, though it hasn’t completely erased the cyclical nature of crypto markets.
Unlike retail traders, institutional investors tend to accumulate rather than panic sell, helping to moderate extreme volatility. However, their exposure also means Bitcoin’s price can now react sharply to macroeconomic events, such as interest rate decisions or liquidity shocks — dynamics similar to those of traditional risk assets like tech stocks.
A Market of Contradictions
Bitcoin in 2025 exists in a paradox. It is simultaneously seen as digital gold and a speculative tech stock, both a hedge and a high-risk play. This dual identity fuels volatility, but it also drives innovation and interest. Budki believes these contradictions are precisely what make Bitcoin’s evolution so compelling.
“The market still doesn’t understand Bitcoin’s true nature,” he said. “It’s not just a speculative asset or a store of value — it’s a financial protocol that will underpin an entirely new global system. But until that realization becomes mainstream, we’ll keep seeing cycles of greed and fear.”
The Long Game
For Budki, the future of Bitcoin isn’t defined by the next two years but by the next two decades. Temporary crashes, he argues, are part of a natural process of cleansing excess leverage and irrational exuberance. Each correction, in his view, serves to strengthen the network by redistributing Bitcoin to stronger hands.
“Every major drawdown in Bitcoin’s history has eventually led to a new all-time high,” Budki concluded. “If history rhymes again, the next collapse will be remembered not as a disaster, but as a setup for Bitcoin’s march toward a million dollars.”
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-could-plunge-to-70000-before-reaching-1-million-says-crypto-expert/