Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000 by Year-End if Republicans Win US Elections

Kendrick’s analysis predicted that Bitcoin could hit $73,000 by Election Day, with further gains if Trump wins. He also predicted that a Harris victory could lead to a temporary dip before the BTC price stabilizes. Meanwhile, crypto PACs are still making their voices, and wallets, heard in the days before the election, which  attracted some criticism. Polymarket’s betting odds shifted in favor of Trump as well, driven by a single whale’s large pro-Trump positions.

Trump Bump Could Push Bitcoin to New Highs

Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, forecasted a potential surge in Bitcoin’s price to $125,000 by the end of the year. However, this prediction becoming a reality will depend on whether there is a Republican win in the US elections on Nov. 5.  Kendrick’s outlook is especially optimistic about the Republican Party’s prospects, particularly if Donald Trump regains the presidency.

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin could reach about $73,000 by Election Day, which certainly aligns with the increasing probabilities of a Trump victory on betting markets. This prediction is slightly below Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of around $73,800 which was recorded in March. 

Geoff Kendrick’s Bitcoin analysis

Should Trump secure a second term, Kendrick expects an immediate 4% rise in Bitcoin’s value after the election results are released. This will be followed by an additional 10% increase in the days after. On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, Kendrick believes there will be a temporary downturn for Bitcoin. Nevethtless, he still believes that BTC’s price will stabilize at about $75,000 by the end of the year.

The crypto community generally sees Trump as more favorable to the industry compared to Harris. She has, however, received some support from well known people in the crypto space like Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, who contributed $11 million in XRP to her campaign. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds of winning are 63% on Ploymarket, where a single whale investor recently placed a $20 million bet on his victory.

There are a few other market commentators and analysts that share Kendrick’s bullish outlook on Bitcoin in the event of a Trump win. An executive from Bitwise suggested that Bitcoin could reach $92,000. Deribit, a crypto exchange, predicts a target of $80,000 by the end of November if Trump wins. However, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink believes that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory will continue regardless of the election outcome.

Crypto PACs Slammed for Election Interference

Pennsylvania Representative Summer Lee recently criticized crypto-backed political action committees (PACs) for funding advertisements that were aimed at discrediting candidates in the 2024 primaries. At an Oct. 24 virtual event that was hosted by Public Citizen and Americans for Financial Reform, Rep. Lee criticized the influence wielded by special interest groups like crypto Super PACs, which specifically targeted lawmakers seeking reelection.

Rep. Lee argued that the money from the digital asset industry is being used to silence representatives who are fighting to hold them accountable. She pointed to examples of crypto PACs spending more than $3 million to unseat her colleagues Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, who lost their primary races in June and August. 

According to Lee, this kind of behavior keeps ordinary people out of politics while allowing major players to dominate. She also referred to the $134 million that was spent by crypto interests in one election cycle as an exploitation of the system that obscures the true motivations behind their support in these races.

Lee went on to point out actions by the Fairshake PAC, which funded media buys against Bowman, representing New York’s 16th Congressional District, and Bush, from Missouri’s 1st Congressional District. In August, after Bush’s loss, Fairshake’s Josh Vlasto labeled her as an “anti-crypto, Elizabeth Warren-endorsed lawmaker.” She believes this serves as proof of the industry’s intent to support only candidates who align with its interests.

Total contributions made by FairshaePAC in 2 years (Source: FEC)

While Lee acknowledged that industries and interest groups should at least have a voice in democracy, she argued that they should not dominate the conversation or have disproportionate influence. 

However, not everyone sees the involvement of crypto PACs as problematic. Texas Blockchain Council President Lee Bratcher spoke at the Permissionless conference on Oct. 10, and called the PAC activity a natural part of democracy, where funding helps secure time and bandwidth to educate elected officials about the industry.

Even though there are only a few days remaining before the US election, crypto Super PACs are still pouring money into supporting or opposing candidates. Early voting is already underway, and millions are expected to cast their votes soon. The stakes are very high as control of the House and Senate is in play. 

On Oct. 17, Fairshake and its affiliate Defend American Jobs reported spending $1.3 million across five states to back various candidates. It also spent over $1.8 million to support California Representative Young Kim and more than $800,000 for Texas Representative Monica De La Cruz Hernandez. Protect Progress, another Fairshake affiliate, also made media buys in support of Virginia Representative Suhas Subramanyam and California Representative Rohit Khanna.

Though these crypto PACs primarily focus on congressional races, their influence even extends to the presidential election. The Bitcoin Voter PAC recently funded ads supporting Donald Trump and Senate candidates in Texas and Pennsylvania.

Polymarket Identifies Pro-Trump Whale

Polymarket representatives were able to identify a single whale behind $28 million in pro-Trump positions on the platform. They say the trades were placed by an unnamed French citizen with a background in finance and trading. 

According to a report in The New York Times DealBook, company spokespeople revealed that the trader used four accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—to place the bets. The investigation found no evidence of market manipulation because the trader intentionally spread his bets across smaller positions to prevent erratic market movements. The individual was contacted by Polymarket, and stated that the positions were driven by personal views on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. 

Election winner odds (Source: Polymarket)

In October, betting odds for the upcoming presidential election on Polymarket noticeably started to shift in favor of former President Donald Trump. This raised some serious concerns about possible market manipulation, which prompted the company to investigate. One of the main goals of the investigation was to identify potential US users on the platform, which is primarily geared toward international users. 

However, Tarek Mansour, the founder of the prediction market Kalshi, argued that the Polymarket odds accurately reflected organic market sentiment. Mansour pointed to data from Kalshi that showed similar trends with Trump maintaining a solid lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The change in Polymarket odds happened after a sharp rise in support for Trump in early October, which ended a long period of narrow betting spreads between the two candidates. Earlier, in August, Harris had held a decent lead over Trump, but as August ended and September began, the race tightened and the two contenders were running almost evenly.

While critics of prediction markets argue that they are much less reliable than traditional polling and that traders often place speculative bets without strong supporting evidence, advocates for these platforms argue that they serve as a public good. They also believe that the monetary incentives tied to prediction markets make them a more accurate gauge of election sentiment than traditional polls.