Bitcoin’s September 2025 performance shows resilience: BTC climbed ~8%, held the $116K–$117K trendline support, and saw declining exchange reserves plus rising leveraged longs, suggesting momentum toward the $122K–$123K resistance and a potential move to $130K if key levels break.
BTC gained ~8% in September 2025 while holding $116K support
On-chain signals (NVM ratio ~2.35) and shrinking exchange reserves point to healthier valuation dynamics.
Derivatives flow shows long dominance (Long/Short ~1.20), increasing upside conviction toward $123K–$130K.
Meta description: Bitcoin September 2025 resilience — BTC holds $116K support, NVM ratio reset, long dominance rising; read action-ready market signals from COINOTAG.
How has Bitcoin performed in September 2025?
Bitcoin September 2025 has outperformed historical seasonality, gaining about 8% while defending an ascending trendline near $116K. On-chain metrics and derivatives positioning indicate constructive momentum with resistance clustered at $122K–$123.7K and upside potential toward $130K if those levels are overcome.
What on-chain signals support Bitcoin’s resilience?
The NVM ratio eased to approximately 2.35, a 7.5% decline that signals valuations aligning with network activity. Exchange reserves have continued to shrink, indicating supply withdrawal from markets. Together, these dynamics reduce speculative heat and bolster sustainable upside.
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Can Bitcoin’s trendline defense unlock another breakout?
Price action has respected an ascending trendline across daily charts, with buyers defending every retest near $116K–$117K. Momentum indicators — RSI ~57 and Parabolic SAR below price — point to balanced momentum with room to extend higher, provided resistance between $122K and $123.7K is cleared.
Source: TradingView
NVM ratio reset aligns price with network growth
The Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) Ratio dropped to ~2.35, a move that historically precedes healthier valuation regimes. This reset suggests price discovery is beginning to track real network usage rather than pure market speculation.
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When NVM cools after an expansion phase, markets often see fewer abrupt corrections and more measured advances — a positive for multi-month structure.
Derivatives flows show a tilt toward longs: the Long/Short Ratio registered roughly 54.6% longs vs 45.4% shorts at the time of reporting (Long/Short ~1.20). That positioning increases both the potential for rapid upside if resistance breaks and the risk of sharper intraday moves if stops are triggered.
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