 
 
Prominent commodity trader Brandt has issued a dire Bitcoin warning as the price of the world’s largest and oldest cryptocurrency slumped to its lowest price since early December amid fading hopes of a Santa rally.
Brandt noted that Bitcoin’s growth parabola has broken, potentially leading to a brutal correction to $25,000.
BTC’s Parabolic Arc Breaks
In a Dec.15 post on X, Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin bull market cycles have followed parabolic rallies. Specifically, the asset has historically witnessed a meteoric surge in 12-18 months post-halving and subsequently slid into a bear market once a major parabola was violated, characterized by 70% to 80% correction from historic highs.
Notably, each bull cycle has witnessed diminishing returns. Case in point, following the first halving in November 2012, BTC enjoyed a 100-fold growth to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving yielded a 74-fold rally, while the 2020 halving fetched an eight-fold jump.
The latest post-halving cycle, which began after the fourth event in April 2024, saw prices double to an all-time peak of $126,000 by October this year. Since then, prices have recently retraced to just under $86,000, snapping the parabola curve that has marked enormous price upsurges during each previous cycle.
 
80% Drawdown Looming?
With BTC down around 20% from its October ATH, its current parabolic structure has already failed. If history repeats itself, an 80% decline for BTC would represent a trip back to the $25,000 range in the coming months.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt wrote on X.
Bitcoin dropped 2.5% in the past 24 hours to trade for $87,390 as of press time, according to CoinGecko data, extending a December downturn marked by weakening liquidity and increasing caution across markets. Overall, the crypto market has shed 2.7% of its value over the last 24 hours.