Veteran gold advocate Peter Schiff has reignited the Bitcoin debate, warning that a break below the $50,000 level could open the door to a sharp slide toward $20,000.
- Peter Schiff warns a break below $50,000 could send Bitcoin toward $20,000.
- Gold has outperformed Bitcoin significantly over the past year.
- A $19 billion liquidation event in October 2025 exposed leverage risks.
- Institutional ETF outflows signal short-term caution.
- The Bitcoin vs. gold debate is intensifying as markets diverge.
In a February 20 post on X, Schiff argued that such a move would mark an 84% collapse from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.
While deep drawdowns have defined Bitcoin’s past cycles, Schiff claims this time is different. He points to elevated leverage, broader institutional exposure, and a much larger market capitalization as factors that could amplify downside risks if key technical support levels fail.
Digital Gold Narrative Under Fire
Schiff continues to reject the “digital gold” thesis. He argues that gold’s explosive rally throughout 2025 signals weakening confidence in risk assets, including Bitcoin. Over the past year, gold climbed roughly 55–70%, briefly surpassing $4,000 per ounce and pushing toward new record territory in early 2026.
By contrast, Bitcoin has struggled. From February 2025 to February 2026, BTC posted losses of roughly 25–33%, sitting about 50% below its all-time high. When priced in gold terms, Schiff notes Bitcoin remains about 15% under its peak value.
Central banks have played a major role in gold’s momentum. Official sector purchases reportedly exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually, reinforcing what some analysts describe as a structural “gold supercycle.” Schiff predicts the metal could reach $4,000 by mid-2026 and potentially $6,000 by year-end if inflation persists and the U.S. dollar weakens further.
Leverage and Institutional Exposure Raise Stakes
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has reinforced concerns about systemic risk within crypto markets. On October 10, 2025, a single “black swan” event erased approximately $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions in one day, as BTC plunged from $126,000 toward $92,000.
Institutional flows have also shifted. After initially embracing spot Bitcoin ETFs, some large investors pulled a record $3.5 billion from Bitcoin-linked funds in November 2025 following the crash. Although long-term adoption trends remain intact, short-term positioning has turned more defensive.
Historically, Bitcoin has endured multiple 70–80% corrections, often requiring two years or more to fully recover. Schiff argues that if $50,000 fails to hold, forced liquidations and risk-off sentiment could accelerate a move toward $20,000.
Decoupling From Gold
The past 12 months have highlighted a clear divergence between gold and Bitcoin performance. Gold’s market capitalization now stands near $35 trillion, dwarfing Bitcoin’s roughly $1.3 trillion valuation. While BTC remains one of the best-performing assets over a decade-long horizon, recent trends show investors favoring traditional safe havens during periods of geopolitical tension and tariff-related uncertainty.
Analysts at major institutions, including J.P. Morgan, have projected continued upside for gold through 2026, further fueling comparisons between the two assets.
For now, Bitcoin’s next decisive move may hinge on whether the $50,000 level holds. A breakdown could validate Schiff’s bearish scenario. A strong rebound, however, would once again challenge long-standing critiques of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-could-crash-to-20000-warns-economist-peter-schiff/