Bitcoin Bulls, Ethereum Ratio Rises – Trustnodes

Months of speculation on interest rates has now seen the first hike in US since 2018. There may be as much as six more coming, with markets thought to have priced in seven hikes.

Counterintuitively, stocks and bitcoin greeted this with green. But they sold and sold the rumor, what else was there to do on the news?

With that uncertainty out of the way, risk on sentiment may well return, in part perhaps because China has to turn on the printer.

They locking down again while being left behind, causing more supply chain issues. Is this an attack? If it was, the rise in interest rates is good news, though China getting a grip and no longer messing with our factories would be better.

Does anyone think there will be peace in Ukraine? As if an election, we have one article saying yes and another saying no.

It’s barely been days, and yet it feels like war is the natural state of Ukraine. Awful, but we’ve learned from this yes and no now to believe nothing from Russia until we see it and act in all ways as if the worst is to be expected.

US is to send drones. All hands on deck for liberte. Let peace be a surprise for once, until then, compartmentalize with the expectation of the deception fog deceptioning, although they can’t decept anymore.

Russia is losing though and peace would be a nice gift from the heavens this spring. But, do the markets care anymore?

And a bigger question for this space is does bitcoin really care about macro currently? Are we fooling ourselves with that narrative?

Ethereum’s price has risen against bitcoin, from 0.065 BTC per eth, to 0.068. Not much, but it’s something, and maybe enough for us to ask whether eth is leading.

Here is one potential theory. Defi booms, eth then booms, eth network fees reach the point where defi winters, nfts boom however so eth booms, nfts cool but fees drop to the point where defi can boom, and so cycle repeats?

Too nice maybe, or just cause and effect. A more ‘conventional’ theory however is the upcoming drastic drop in ethereum’s not just new supply, but total supple.

An estimated 1,000 eth is to be taken out of total supply a day starting this June or so. That’s basically a circa $2.8 million eth buyback every day. $100 million a month.

But, there is no such thing as pricing-in in crypto, aaand, does ethereum bitcoin?

In 2018 just as the market was to bear, ethereum reduced new supply after a dev ‘committee’ to lower miners block reward in ‘compromise’ for delaying the difficulty bomb.

Why no halving or thirding boom for eth at that point, instead of following bitcoin’s bear? Because eth had mooned, there had been a reduction before as well, and obviously some dev call with miners is no way to manage supply.

This time, it’s not just a reduction in supply to the point of no new supply at all when taking into account the burning, but it is also a dismissal of this committee, the firing of the eth ‘FED.’ Because afterwards, the monetary policy is fixed.

Also that 2018 reduction was following bitcoin to remain twice bitcoin’s inflation rate. Eth was at 3x, and dropped to 2x, then 1x, but bitcoin halved and eth is now again 2x, at 4% while BTC is at 2%.

This time eth moves to actual deflation, so there may be cause for repricing. But, can eth really move the market on its own without ping pong with bitcoin?

Difficult questions. Our answer would be probably not. If eth is pushing higher, bitcoin will be dragged with it, not least because them bitcoin boys have a lot of tricks.

So can eth slap bitcoin? If bitcoin wanted to bear, can eth just kick it and drag it from its ear? Or is bitcoin too overbearing to the point eth’s drastic supply changes are irrelevant?

In the absence of certainty, once can choose the answer. Our choice would be to start by suggesting eth is bitcoin. It was funded by bitcoiners, it was propelled by bitcoiners in 2016 amid the blocksize wars, that whole defi and even nfts were bitcoin talking points long before eth made them a reality.

And if eth is bitcoin then of course it can bitcoin, and bitcoin never has really stood in the way of eth when eth spoke clearly. When eth really said it wanted to go up, bitcoin just asked how high BTC should jump to make room for it.

So will the spell be broken, no bear? It’s spring and the answer may well be how high. Summer dull after June maybe. And then an Autumn surprise with the bull extended?

Who knows. We’re just happy bitcoin is bulling one one minute candles because 30k being the bear bottom is not bear is it?

Obviously if there’s some sort of calamity as with that BSV nonsense fork in 2019, it might very briefly $15k but, 30k isn’t really bear is it?

Technically, yes, huge drop, but, in bitcoin terms, that’s a day out in Hyde Park. Although newcomers maybe have a different perspective, but if 30k is the bottom then this one minute bull run might not even be a joke.