Bitcoin Bull Run Incoming? Key 2025 Signal Turns Positive at 50% – Coincu

Key Points:

• IBCI at 50% hints Bitcoin may be gearing up for the next upward phase in the cycle.
• Low exchange volume suggests cautious investor sentiment despite Bitcoin hovering near all-time highs.
• Mining costs spike 34%, raising pressure on miners and potentially supporting Bitcoin’s price floor.

The Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) remains at the 50% level following a recent correction from its peak in early 2024. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah observed that this neutral zone often occurs between profit-taking and the next bullish phase. Bitcoin’s stable price recovery and lack of market euphoria reinforce the view that the cycle is redefining, rather than ending.

Historically, the index only reaches the 100% distribution zone at market tops. Since Bitcoin has not reached this level again, the 50% mark may be setting the stage for fresh advance. As long as price action supports new highs, the IBCI may guide the market back toward a renewed bull-run phase.

Low Exchange Volume Speaks to Spot ETF Impact and Cautious Traders

Despite Bitcoin being near all-time highs, trading volume on exchanges remains muted. caueconomy noted this low activity stems partly from growing spot ETF usage and underwhelming altcoin performance. For now, most transactions are driven by focused investors rather than speculative traders.

This calm phase may serve as healthy consolidation ahead of any major price movements. Analysts suggest that once trading volume picks up, the market may be nearing a short-term high. Continued low volume keeps the rally orderly, but it also means a surge could come unexpectedly as traders return.

Rising Mining Costs Add Pressure to Bitcoin Ecosystem

Bitcoin mining costs are rising rapidly. According to TheMinerMag, the average cost per coin mined climbed from $52,000 in Q4 2024 to over $70,000 in Q2 2025—a 34% increase over two quarters. This jump reflects growing network difficulty, higher energy prices, and intense competition among mining firms.

Producers under pressure may sell more Bitcoin to cover costs, adding short-term supply to the market. Despite this, miners continue operating as long as prices stay above cost thresholds. The rising break-even point may support underlying price strength moving forward.

Meanwhile, as we recently reported, BTC holders with 6–12 months tenure sold more than $904 million in profits on June 16. These sales made up 83% of realized gains for the day and marked the second-largest daily take-profit event this year. Long-term holders (12+ months) realized only $324 million in profits, marking a slowdown in their exit activity.