Bitcoin Bull Market May End by October if 2020 Cycle Pattern Holds, Analyst Suggests

• Crypto analyst Rekt Capital warns that the current Bitcoin bull market may conclude by October 2024, urging traders to adhere to established halving cycle principles.

• Despite some predictions of a cycle extension into 2026, Rekt Capital emphasizes the importance of historical patterns over emerging narratives like Bitcoin’s correlation with global money supply.

• According to COINOTAG, Rekt Capital stresses that emotional reactions to new metrics can cloud judgment, advocating for reliance on time-tested market indicators.

Bitcoin’s bull market could peak by October 2024, with analyst Rekt Capital urging traders to follow halving cycles and avoid speculative extensions into 2026.

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Bitcoin Bull Market Set to Peak by October 2024, Following Historical Halving Cycles

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has highlighted that the current Bitcoin (BTC) bull run may have only a few months remaining, potentially concluding by October 2024. This forecast is grounded in the historical pattern observed during the 2020 Bitcoin cycle, where the market peaked approximately 550 days after the halving event. The upcoming halving, scheduled for April 2024, suggests a similar timeline, positioning October as a critical month for price action.

Rekt Capital’s analysis underscores the significance of the halving cycle as a reliable market indicator, cautioning traders against disregarding this metric in favor of speculative narratives. He notes that the remaining price expansion window is narrow, implying that investors should prepare for a potential market peak within the next few months.

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Emerging Narratives vs. Time-Tested Market Metrics

While some market participants anticipate a prolonged Bitcoin cycle extending into 2026, this view contrasts with the traditional halving cycle framework. Rekt Capital criticizes this trend as an emotional response, driven by the allure of new metrics such as Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 Money Supply. He warns that abandoning established principles risks clouding investment decisions and undermining strategic positioning.

Supporting this perspective, COINOTAG highlights that adherence to historical data and market cycles remains crucial for maintaining objectivity in crypto trading. The analyst’s cautionary stance encourages investors to balance innovation with proven analytical frameworks to navigate the volatile crypto landscape effectively.

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Institutional Adoption and Its Impact on Bitcoin Cycle Reliability

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s halving cycle may be less predictive today due to increased institutional involvement, which has altered market dynamics compared to previous cycles. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, suggests that sustained investor inflows have decoupled Bitcoin’s price trajectory from traditional post-halving declines.

This shift has led to more bullish forecasts, with Standard Chartered and wealth management firm Bernstein projecting Bitcoin prices reaching $200,000 by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has set an even higher target of $250,000. These predictions reflect confidence in Bitcoin’s evolving market structure but also highlight the ongoing debate about the halving cycle’s relevance.

Current Market Performance and Analyst Sentiment

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, gaining approximately 3.5% over the past 30 days and trading near its all-time high of $111,970. Crypto analyst Crypto Auris recently suggested that expanding global money supply could drive Bitcoin’s price toward $170,000, reinforcing the narrative of macroeconomic factors influencing crypto valuations.

Nevertheless, Rekt Capital’s emphasis on disciplined analysis serves as a reminder that market participants should not let optimism overshadow empirical evidence. Maintaining a balanced approach that incorporates both historical cycles and emerging trends is essential for informed decision-making.

Conclusion

As Bitcoin approaches a critical juncture in its 2024 cycle, Rekt Capital’s insights advocate for a cautious yet informed approach grounded in halving cycle principles. While institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors introduce new variables, the historical pattern suggests the bull market may peak by October. Traders and investors are encouraged to integrate time-tested metrics with evolving market dynamics to optimize their strategies and navigate the crypto market’s inherent volatility effectively.