Bitcoin Bull Market: Is the Rally Over or Just Paused?

Bitcoin trades near $102K after a $1.3B whale sale. On-chain and leverage data suggest the bull market is pausing, not ending.

Bitcoin’s bull market is facing uncertainty as the price hovers around $102,000. Traders are now debating whether the rally has ended or is temporarily paused. 

Here’s how recent events, including a massive whale sale and reduced leverage, are affecting the market.

Bitcoin Whale Sell-Off Triggers Short-Term Fear

On November 9, a 15-year-old Bitcoin whale (codenamed Owen Gunden) sold 11,000 BTC worth about $1.3 billion. The dormant wallet had not moved since pre-2010. The sale shocked traders and contributed to bearish pressure over the short term.

Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden seems ready to dump all of his 11K $BTC($1.12B).

8 hours ago, he moved his remaining 3,549 $BTC($361.84M) — with 600 $BTC($61.17M) already deposited to #Kraken.https://t.co/QYVHyxa0SV pic.twitter.com/wMpQvS5O9y

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) November 9, 2025

The spot and derivatives markets also reacted to the sudden liquidity injection while BTC briefly tested support levels near $98,000 while consolidating below $104,000. 

Analysts are now warning that such sales can create fear among retail investors, even though long-term trends may still be intact.

Technical traders noted that BTC formed a descending broadening wedge on lower time frames. This pattern indicates that the cryptocurrency can still break upwards if the structure holds.

Some traders are targeting $115,000, while expecting a short-term relief rally.

Did The Market Peak In October?

Derivatives data shows a decline in leveraged trading. This shows that the market is in a reset, rather than a top. Furthermore, Binance’s BTC Leverage Pulse indicates that the short-term estimated leverage ratio fell to 0.2247. This is near the lowest level since mid-October.

The reduction in leverage indicates that traders are winding down risky positions. This could help to stabilise the markets and reduce the chance of cascading liquidations. 

Still, according to Vlad Svitanko, the founder of Cryptorsy Ventures, in a recent LinkedIn post, an anonymous analyst predicted the October peak.

Back in 2023, this analyst noted alternating bull market cycles of 1064 days, before 364 days and vice versa.

Based on this trend, the current bear market is expected to have peaked in October, which it appears to have done after the pullback from $115,000.

Whether this pattern repeats remains to be seen. However, Bitcoin will need to break above $115,000 again to break the trend.

On-Chain Metrics Show Strong Fundamentals

On-chain analysis shows that Bitcoin fundamentals are still strong. Realised capitalisation rose by about $8 billion recently and showed strong money inflows. 

Average wallet cost basis now sits at $55.9K, which means that holders are up roughly 93% on average.

Despite these positive fundamentals, marginal demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries has slowed. 

Without fresh institutional buying, BTC may continue to consolidate and analysts say this is not a full market top but a temporary pause.

Technical Levels to Watch

BTC is currently trading between $101,000 and $106,000. The $98,000 zone is currently serving as strong support, while resistance sits near $103,000–$104,000. 

A break below $98,000 could push the price toward $90,000. Conversely, reclaiming resistance may trigger a new rally toward $115,000.

In all, November has historically been volatile for Bitcoin. Early days of the month tend to be bearish, followed by fake-outs or traps for traders. The final third of the month then brings consolidation and sets up the conditions for a stronger fourth quarter.