Bitcoin (BTC USD) trades around $116,000 in mid-September 2025. That means the flagship crypto would need roughly a 115% rally to reach the $250,000 level.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues this outcome hinges on central-bank money printing.
He says a Fed pivot from tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) – essentially flooding markets with fiat – could spur a surge to $250K by year-end 2025.
Hayes notes that Bitcoin “trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” so any new liquidity should drive its price higher.
Federal Reserve Pivot, Crypto Liquidity & Bitcoin Price
In a chart shared by Jamie Coutts , increasing global M2 money supply is linked to higher Bitcoin prices.
Analyst Jamie Coutts projects Bitcoin (BTC USD) above $132,000 by late 2025 if money supply trends continue.
Hayes’s thesis is aligned: he argues that any Fed shift to QE would kick off a powerful Bitcoin rally.
In an April post he wrote that after Bitcoin hit a $76,500 low, the stage was set for “the ascent to $250,000 by year-end” once QT ended.
He warns that as soon as the Fed formally reinvests Treasury inflows or buys bonds again – effectively treasury QE – Bitcoin will “scream higher” on the dollar flood.
In short, Hayes says Fed easing (or fiscal dominance forcing it) is the primary trigger for Bitcoin’s next leg up.
Hayes has reiterated this view in recent months. In July 2025 his fund Maelstrom doubled down, saying it is “all-in” on a credit-expansion cycle.
He analogizes crypto trading to dancing to the beat of credit growth. With Bitcoin’s supply fixed, Hayes notes that excess fiat will bid up the price.
In his words, the Fed now “flood[ing] the market with dollars” to fund deficits clears the way for Bitcoin (BTC USD) move to $250K.
Other macro analysts echo parts of this view. Real Vision’s Raoul Pal, for example, highlights that Bitcoin often rises about 10 weeks after increases in the M2 money supply.
And despite hiccups (Q1 2025 was Bitcoin’s weakest start in years), many observers see strong momentum.
Standard Chartered recently called Bitcoin an “inflation hedge,” reinforcing the idea that loose monetary policy favors crypto.
Still, some caution is in the air: QCP Capital warns that persistent stagflation could keep the Fed on a tightening bias instead, which would challenge the QE-driven bull case.
Stablecoins Tie Crypto to Debt Markets
Hayes also highlights how stablecoins link crypto liquidity to U.S. government borrowing.
He notes that major stablecoin issuers have effectively become funders of America’s deficit by buying Treasuries with newly minted tokens.
For example, Tether, the largest stablecoin, holds roughly $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bills. In Hayes’s view, this plugs the crypto market directly into fiscal policy: more U.S. debt issuance (and Fed support to finance it) means more liquidity potentially chasing Bitcoin (BTC USD).
He describes stablecoins as “the crypto market’s plumbing,” tying digital assets to government debt.
This dynamic suggests a feedback loop: if the U.S. government borrows and central banks step in with QE, stablecoin issuers will likely expand their purchases of Treasuries, indirectly pouring more dollars into crypto.
Bitcoin (BTC USD) Path to $250K
Hayes’s analysis implies that the higher U.S. debt climbs, the more pressure builds on the Fed to ease – and the more fuel there is for Bitcoin.
Ethereum, as the dominant platform for stablecoins, also stands to benefit (Hayes targets ETH to $10,000 in this cycle).
But for Bitcoin (BTC USD) path to $250K, the key is simply the flow of liquidity through the system, from the Fed into dollars and into digital assets.
At today’s levels ($116K), Bitcoin would need well over a 100% gain to reach $250K. Hayes himself notes that hitting $250K is “more than a 100% increase based on the current Bitcoin price.”
This is a high bar, but not outside the range of some forecasts. In fact, analysts at Bitwise, Bernstein and Standard Chartered have projected Bitcoin could top $200,000 by 2026.
Standard Chartered specifically highlighted Bitcoin’s strengthening role as an inflation hedge, while OKX US CEO Roshan Roberts says institutional investors are treating Bitcoin as a “macro hedge.”