Bitcoin (BTC) Stabilizes Amid Market Consolidation, Not Collapse

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant price drop from its October all-time high, falling by 21.46% to a low of $99,045. According to Bitfinex Alpha, this decline is indicative of a market consolidation phase rather than a cascading sell-off. Historical data suggests that such price actions are typical of mid-cycle corrections, where structural participants stabilize their positions and capital rotates within the ecosystem, setting the stage for a potential continuation of the broader uptrend.

Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

The failure to maintain the short-term holders’ cost basis of $112,500 has triggered a controlled decline. This has brought Bitcoin below key support levels, confirming the anticipated retest of deeper structural supports. Currently, about 72% of Bitcoin’s supply remains profitable, aligning with the typical equilibrium band of 70-90% observed during mid-cycle slowdowns. This suggests that while selling pressure exists, much of the speculative excess has already been eliminated.

The Active Investors’ Realised Price of $88,500 now stands as a crucial downside reference, aligning with past cycle support zones where market capitulation historically transitioned into re-accumulation. Although brief relief rallies towards the short-term holders’ cost basis are possible, sustained recovery will depend on renewed demand from both institutional and retail investors. Until such demand materializes, the market is expected to remain range-bound with compressed volatility as structural positioning resets in anticipation of the next major cycle move.

Broader Economic Signals

In the broader economic context, the US economy presents mixed signals. Corporate borrowing is on the rise, but hiring is faltering, with the October ADP National Employment Report showing just 42,000 new jobs, primarily from large firms. Meanwhile, small and mid-sized companies have continued to shed workers for the third consecutive month. Consumer confidence has also dropped by 6% in November, reflecting the impact of slower hiring and policy uncertainties.

Crypto Industry Developments

The cryptocurrency industry is witnessing a new phase of mainstream adoption, driven by record growth in stablecoins and increasing regulatory engagement. In October 2025, Ethereum-based stablecoins reached an all-time high of $2.82 trillion in monthly volume, marking a 45% increase from September. This surge is attributed to investors shifting towards dollar-pegged tokens amid market pullbacks and Ethereum’s expanding Layer-2 ecosystem, which facilitates faster and cheaper transactions.

Globally, regulators are intensifying efforts to integrate blockchain into traditional finance. Japan’s Financial Services Agency has approved a stablecoin pilot involving major banks Mizuho, MUFG, and SMBC, set to commence in November 2025. This initiative aims to test regulated digital payments under new financial laws. Concurrently, in Australia, the Chair of the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC), Joe Longo, has advocated for tokenisation to modernize markets, announcing a relaunch of the ASIC Innovation Hub and updated licensing for stablecoins and tokenized securities.

For more insights, visit the original article on Bitfinex.

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