After dipping back inside its bull flag on Wednesday, the Bitcoin price has since recovered to close a daily candle above the bull flag trendline. The U.S. presidential election is only two weeks away, and republican candidate Donald Trump has the wind in his sails. Bitcoin is likely to thrive on a Trump victory.
Election and economy provide potential boosts to Bitcoin
The U.S. presidential election is only a couple of weeks away, and things still look tight. The traditional polls have both candidates neck and neck, while Polymarket has Trump the leader by 60.1% to 39.9. That said, all seven swing states look to be going Trump’s way, and early voting also appears to favour the republican candidate, but anything could happen in the next several days.
From an economic perspective, things are looking better, at least on the face of it. Inflation has dropped to its lowest point in three years, and the stock market just keeps on making high after high. On the flip side, unemployment claims are rising, and there is a constant concern that inflation could start increasing again.
Recent reversal still bullish for Bitcoin
Source: TradingView
The short-term time frame for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) shows how the price is once more above the bull flag top trendline. On Wednesday, the $BTC price fell through this support, and a candle wick came down to pierce the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $65,400. However, if the price does only come down this far, this is very bullish for Bitcoin, signalling that buyers are not prepared to see the price go down to the deeper 0.618 or 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels.
The $BTC price is currently at a good level of support, with the bull flag trendline just below. It might be expected that the bounce continues from here. If things did turn back down again, there is good support at $66,000, $65,400, and $64,000.
The importance of the 0.618, and 0.786 Fibonacci levels
Source: TradingView
In the daily time frame, the Fibonacci levels for the entire bull flag move display an interesting story. It can be observed how at the recent top, the $BTC price just failed to close above the 0.786 Fibonacci. It can also be seen just how important the 0.618 Fibonacci is. Even if the breakout does definitively take place, it wouldn’t be surprising if the price did make one more dip down to this level at $64,400.
Source: TradingView
Transferring the Fibonacci sequence over to the weekly view, and including the previous bull market top, the importance of the 0.786 Fibonacci can be noted once more. This does appear to be the level, on top or which, the next stage bull market structure could be built upon.
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Source: https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2024/10/bitcoin-btc-recovers-from-3-day-dip-holds-above-bull-flag