Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a key support zone near $86K–$87K, with analysts noting that its 2025–26 cycle could set the stage for a potential long-term breakout.
Despite recent market fluctuations, Bitcoin has maintained resilience, supported by demand zones and technical indicators suggesting accumulation. Historical post-halving patterns imply that BTC may have room for upside, though outcomes remain highly conditional.
BTC Holds Key Support Zone
Bitcoin is currently trading near the $86,900–$87,050 demand zone, which appears significant for sustaining short-term bullish momentum. Traders report that buying interest has increased in this region, strengthening the technical base.
IncomeSharks indicates Bitcoin’s OBV consolidation near 1.68 million may support upside if price breaks above $90,000. Source: IncomeSharks via X
Market analyst IncomeSharks noted:
“As long as weekly closes remain above roughly $85,000, the broader bullish structure appears intact. Minor pullbacks may occur, but the trend remains constructive.”
Interpretation: Maintaining this zone is critical for near-term bullish continuity. A sustained break below this area would signal short-term vulnerability rather than invalidate longer-term cycles.
Short-Term Technical Considerations: CME Gaps and OBV
A CME futures gap between approximately $93,750–$95,000 is drawing attention. Gaps occur due to weekend or holiday market halts, and historical data for Bitcoin shows such gaps have often been revisited, though past behavior is not predictive.
@Degen_Hardy notes a Bitcoin CME gap at $93,750–$95,000 that could draw price higher from current levels near $90,000. Source: Hardy via X
On-Balance Volume (OBV) also shows a sideways accumulation pattern near 1.68 million, which in past instances preceded rallies of 20–30%. While noteworthy, these patterns are based on limited samples and should be considered probabilistic rather than deterministic.
Medium-Term Outlook: 2025–26 Cycle Alignment
Crypto strategist @gmulun observed that Bitcoin’s current cycle resembles the 2020–21 post-halving trend, noting that past cycles saw average gains of ~400% within 12 months after halving events.
@gmulun suggests Bitcoin’s current cycle mirrors past post-halving runs, pointing to a potential long-term breakout toward $180,000. Source: Ulun via X
Historical post-halving returns vary widely. Gains of this magnitude are not guaranteed and depend on macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and structural market factors. The most technically probable medium-term scenario is that Bitcoin remains supported above the $86K–$87K zone, potentially challenging near-term resistance around $94K–$95K before either consolidating or testing higher breakout levels.
Multiple Probable Scenarios for 2026
Analysts outline several conditional scenarios:
- Short-Term Bounce: BTC could approach $99K–$102K in February, followed by consolidation or minor retracement.
- Deeper Correction: A sharp drop to $70K–$73K between April and June is possible, representing a structural retest before a potential new bull market mid-year.
- Sustained Support: Maintaining the $86K–$87K zone increases the probability of upward continuation, potentially toward $94K in the short term.
The outlook suggests short-term volatility and a possible double-bottom before a potential new bull market later in 2026. Source: karyagone on TradingView
Insight: Scenario weighting favors consolidation above the demand zone as most probable. Breaks below it would materially reduce the likelihood of reaching higher targets within the cycle.
Long-Term Speculative Outlook: $180K Cycle Target
The long-term target of $180K is derived from historical pattern projection and post-halving cycle analysis. While these projections provide a framework, they are highly conditional, and several factors could invalidate the thesis:
- Macro shifts such as rising interest rates or regulatory interventions.
- A breakdown of critical support zones below $85K.
- Lower-than-expected institutional inflows or liquidity shortages.
PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model supports a potential bullish outcome, but it has historically deviated during market anomalies, indicating that forecasts must be interpreted cautiously.
Looking Ahead: Conditional Constructive Outlook
Bitcoin’s current trading near $86K–$87K, combined with historical cycle patterns and technical indicators, points to a cautiously constructive medium-to-long-term outlook. Short-term volatility, CME gaps, and minor pullbacks remain possible.
Bitcoin was trading at around $89,876.34, down 0.05% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
Investors and traders should monitor:
- Weekly closes relative to demand zones
- OBV and volume expansion
- Macro and regulatory developments
Only sustained confirmation above support and resistance levels would materially increase confidence in a breakout toward higher speculative targets.