The divergence between price action in Bitcoin and flows into exchange-traded products is drawing close attention from both institutional and retail investors.
As of February 21, 2026, the Bitcoin price today hovers around $68,000 after a sharp retracement from its recent peak near $150,000. The broader context matters: this decline represents roughly a 40% pullback from the Bitcoin all-time high, a move that has reshaped short-term sentiment across the market.
Bullish MACD Divergence Emerges Near $68K
On the three-day chart, analysts have identified a developing bullish divergence on the MACD indicator. In simple terms, while price printed a lower low near $68,500, the MACD formed a higher low. This contrast suggests that selling momentum may be weakening.
The post highlights a bullish MACD divergence on Bitcoin’s three-day chart, with price marking a lower low near $68,500 while momentum formed a higher low. Source: @BitcoinHypers via X
Earlier in the cycle, a bearish MACD divergence preceded the drop from $130,000. Now, the technical structure has flipped. After the bearish divergence on the 3D MACD played out, a bullish divergence has now formed, according to market commentary.
On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped to 37.91, approaching oversold territory. The 50-day moving average sits near $64,700, acting as immediate structural support. Declining volume alongside bearish engulfing patterns suggests seller exhaustion, though confirmation is still needed.
A decisive break below $64,000 could expose the $50,000 region seen in late 2025. Conversely, a rebound toward the former neckline zone near $75,000 would reshape the near-term Bitcoin price prediction outlook.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Add Pressure
While chart signals show early signs of stabilization, ETF data present a more cautious picture.
Since their approval in January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products accumulated over $50 billion in inflows. However, recent months have delivered the first major stress test. More than $8.6 billion has exited spot ETFs since October 2025, marking the largest drawdown of the cycle.
Bitcoin spot ETFs face their first major setback, with over $8B wiped from BTC holdings since the peak. Source: Jigen via X
Unrealized losses across ETF holdings have reportedly peaked near $8 billion. On February 19 alone, daily outflows reached approximately $166 million. The situation is being described as a stress test for the cycle’s biggest demand engine.
Historically, similar ETF-driven drawdowns during prior market phases preceded multi-month recoveries. Whether that pattern repeats remains uncertain, but positioning is clearly shifting.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Signals Strong Bearish Momentum as Downtrend Deepens
The technical structure of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reflects sustained downside pressure.
IBIT is currently trading between $38.07 and $38.38, down roughly 22% year-to-date and sitting closer to its 52-week low of $35.30 than its $71.82 high. Volume remains elevated, signaling persistent distribution rather than accumulation.
Elliott Wave analysis of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF identifies a potential structural price zone between $30 and $35. Source: TradingView
The ETF trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a broader downtrend. While oscillators such as RSI occasionally flash oversold signals, trend strength indicators like ADX confirm that sellers remain in control.
Unless IBIT reclaims major resistance levels with strong inflows, the current structure suggests caution. Given that IBIT is widely viewed as a proxy for institutional exposure to Bitcoin BTC, its weakness raises questions about near-term demand recovery.
Bitcoin and Institutional Capital Cycles
Bitcoin’s evolution into an institutional asset has changed how market cycles unfold. Unlike previous bull markets dominated by retail speculation, the current structure is closely tied to ETF flows, asset manager positioning, and broader liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $68,495, up 2.04% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
When ETF inflows accelerated in 2024 and 2025, the Bitcoin market cap expanded rapidly. Now, outflows are acting as a liquidity drain. This dynamic links the price of Bitcoin not only to chart patterns but also to capital allocation decisions within traditional finance.
Institutional participation has deepened Bitcoin’s integration into macro portfolios. As a result, periods of monetary tightening, risk-off sentiment, or volatility across equities can directly impact BTC positioning. The divergence between a bullish MACD setup and a weakening ETF structure reflects this evolving framework.
Structural Breakdown or Higher-Timeframe Reset?
Some analysts argue that a broader head-and-shoulders formation remains active on higher timeframes, targeting the $53,000 region. Others suggest the neckline breakdown may lead first to a retest near $75,000 before any deeper move unfolds.
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a volatile rally to $150K followed by a drop to $68K, with oversold RSI, declining volume, and candlestick patterns suggesting a possible reversal near the 50-day moving average. Source: @Crypto027X via X
This split outlook highlights the complexity behind current Bitcoin predictions. Short-term momentum indicators point to potential stabilization. Medium-term structural trends, however, remain fragile.
For long-term observers evaluating a broader Bitcoin price forecast 2026, the coming weeks may prove pivotal. Stabilizing ETF flows combined with technical confirmation above $75,000 would strengthen the recovery case. Continued outflows and a break below $64,000 would shift focus toward lower support bands.
Outlook: Positioning Over Prediction
The current landscape underscores a key reality: markets rarely move in straight lines. The Bitcoin latest price action near $68,000 represents a critical decision point between technical reversal and extended consolidation.
Bitcoin is trading near ascending channel resistance around $68.4K, with short-term bullish momentum supporting a potential trend continuation if support holds. Source: CHART_MASTERS_GOLD on TradingView
With ETF outflows testing conviction and IBIT reflecting sustained bearish momentum, institutional behavior remains central to the next phase. Meanwhile, the bullish MACD divergence suggests that downside pressure is no longer accelerating.
Rather than framing the situation as an imminent breakout or collapse, the data support a more measured conclusion. The coming weeks will likely determine whether this phase becomes a reset within a broader cycle—or the beginning of a deeper structural retracement in the evolving Bitcoin price forecast narrative.