Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Could Rally Toward $125K–$131K as Cycle Model Signals Late-2025 Bullish Surge

Bitcoin surged past $121,000 today, igniting optimism across the crypto market as traders and analysts closely monitor ETF developments and technical indicators for potential breakout opportunities.

The leading cryptocurrency has seen renewed momentum, pushing the total crypto market capitalization above $4.16 trillion. This move comes amid broader bullish trends, supported by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and easing trade tensions, which have fueled risk-on sentiment in global markets.

Market Overview: Technical Momentum Supports BTC Rally

Bitcoin’s upward trajectory aligns with a rising 200-day moving average, which has strengthened since early January 2025. Analysts note that the Bitcoin price today reflects both technical and macroeconomic factors, including the current bullish structure on the BTC chart.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $121,218, up 0.97% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

The recent breakout above $121,000 has reinforced momentum, with Bitcoin technical analysis suggesting that continued support around this level may pave the way for further gains. Traders are also keeping a close eye on the RSI indicator, which signals growing buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.

Meanwhile, altcoins have displayed mixed performance: Ethereum neared all-time highs, while Solana surged 15% to $200, forming a rising wedge pattern that could lead to a breakout if momentum sustains. These movements emphasize Bitcoin’s continued dominance in shaping broader market trends.

Trend and News Factors: Cycle Models and Macro Catalysts

The Bitcoin Cycle Model, developed by Bitcoin Intelligence and 21st Capital, predicts a potential BTC rally to $125K–$131K by late 2025. The model uses historical cycles of prices and statistical models to forecast upcoming momentum, using trends in the previous four-year cycles.

The Bitcoin Cycle Model suggests BTC’s largest surge this cycle is yet to come, projecting a rise to $117K–$131K with momentum building into Q4 2025. Source: @MarkETHreal via X

The forecast contrasts with more optimistic predictions, such as Citigroup’s $199K target and $135K base case, as financial institutions continue to grapple with Bitcoin’s potential. Analysts say spot ETF inflows, which have dominated over 40% of the price action of late, might be a price acceleration catalyst.

The other news drivers are the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2025, which should reduce miner rewards and potentially tighten supply, and higher participation by institutional whales, whose movements often spur significant price changes. Added to SEC approval of ETFs and favorable macroeconomic conditions, they make a bullish case for BTC in the second half of the year.

Expert Insights: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge and Long-Term Outlook

Bitcoin’s use as an inflation hedge, particularly in the wake of 2.7% headline and 3.1% core CPI in July, both below forecast. Plump U.S. soft non-farm payrolls and delayed China tariffs have made for a risk-on atmosphere that suits Bitcoin and the other major altcoins.

Bitcoin is consolidating at the top of a Channel Down pattern, with a breakout potentially confirming a bull flag, though some risk of a false move remains. Source: Abdulhamidov7777 on TradingView

Technical analysts also point to the rising 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day line—a classic golden cross—as another sign of a bull. This alignment of macro and on-chain signals strengthens even further the case for a potential BTC rally to the $125K–$131K area by end-2025.

Final Thoughts

The near-term path of Bitcoin today will owe a great deal to continuing ETF flows, technical holding near levels, and macro events. While cycle models indicate robust upside, analysts caution that macro volatility or shocks beyond the crypto universe can briefly reverse direction.

In the future, Bitcoin is still on course to experience a solid late-2025 performance, with key drivers such as the Bitcoin halving 2025, institutional investment, and growing adoption of the Lightning Network and Taproot upgrades supporting its long-term outlook. Traders and investors should monitor support levels and market indicators closely in order to ascertain whether BTC is able to sustain a breakout above $125K.