Bitcoin (BTC) Price Nears $109K: Real Momentum or Dead Cat Bounce?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price holds above $109K after MicroStrategy confirms another major BTC purchase.
• Coinbase Premium Index stays positive, reflecting steady institutional buying interest.
• BTC price momentum stalls as funding rate and open interest show cautious optimism

Bitcoin is trading near $109,000 after reclaiming the level over the weekend. Yet, the sustainability of this move is now in question. While institutional accumulation is increasing, led by MicroStrategy’s aggressive buying, the broader metrics show a split picture. Is this real momentum, or just another delay before a deeper correction?

Institutions Add, But Crowd Still Cautious

MicroStrategy (now Strategy) added to its holdings again this week, lifting its total to 597,325 BTC, just shy of the 600K mark. That’s over 2.8% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Other corporations, such as MARA, Tesla, and Coinbase, still trail far behind, but the psychological signal remains strong: institutions are doubling down while prices hover near all-time highs.

But the price hasn’t broken out with the same aggression. BTC has remained trapped below $110,000 for a considerable amount of time. Most of the shallow rallies lack strong follow-throughs.

This divergence between institutional positioning and market behavior is where the real tension in the Bitcoin price lies.

Coinbase Premium Index Shows Ongoing US Demand

Data from Coinglass shows the Coinbase Premium Index has remained positive throughout the past two weeks. The index tracks the difference in BTC price between Coinbase and Binance. When positive, it reflects stronger demand from U.S.-based investors.

Currently, the premium rate is hovering around 0.03–0.06, showing continued yet sluggish interest from institutions and regulated funds.

Historically, sustained premium zones have preceded upside continuation, but only when accompanied by strong retail confirmation. That confirmation has not yet emerged. And even the Premium index isn’t exhilaratingly bullish, as the sentiment is only mildly exciting.

OI-Weighted Funding Rate Suggests Bullish Leverage Is Cautious

The BTC open-interest weighted funding rate remains modestly positive. While this implies traders are betting on further upside, the rate has not surged the way it did in late May or March, periods that preceded major breakouts.

This suggests that while leverage is leaning long, traders aren’t committing in size. It’s a hesitant bullishness; a bet on continuation, not conviction.

If MicroStrategy and similar entities keep buying at this pace, BTC price could grind higher. But if retail or leveraged players start exiting, institutional inflows alone might not be enough to hold prices above $109,000.

Price Setup Hint At A Squeeze

Bitcon price is holding above $108K, with multiple liquidity pockets stacked between $110K and $111.5K. If the current structure holds, the price could attempt to reclaim the $110.5K level, a key point where prior rallies have failed.

But if buyer exhaustion sets in, a drop toward $106K or even $103K remains in play. The lack of growing funding rates and net exchange outflows adds caution to the otherwise bullish setup.

A deeper analysis reveals that BTC/USD is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle, with the resistance placed at $110,500. This level needs to break if the BTC price wants to make a new all-time-high.

But then, there is a strong support forming near $108,700. The range between the resistance and the support looks like a classical Squeeze zone, and the next leg of BTC’s price move will be determined by which direction it breaks first.

Institutional wallets are buying. Coinbase inflows reflect appetite. But derivatives and net flows remain skeptical. The bullish case hinges on follow-through. If retail steps in, the rally holds. If not, this might be just another sugar rush; or worse, a classic dead cat bounce before the next drop.