In the frothy, ever-volatile world of Bitcoin, bullish “Uptober” sentiment dominates the headlines. With the Bitcoin price soaring up and to the right, the promise of a parabolic Q4 beckons.
Yet not everyone is convinced that the pain is over. Ash Crypto, an influential trader with a large following on X, throws cold water on the hopium party.
Despite this latest pump, he cautions that markets rarely move the way everyone believes. Ash calls for a “nasty drop” where the Bitcoin price dumps to around the $106,000 and ETH drops to near $3,800.
Is this a classic permabear’s refrain, or could history, macro data, and technicals support such a dramatic call?
A Bearish Flash in a Bullish Month?
October is famed for sudden reversals and market drama, but 2025 looked poised for a unidirectional bull charge.
Bitcoin has bounced off September’s correction to reclaim the $119,000 range. The BTC price has been buoyed by a US government shutdown, liquidity surges from stablecoin mints, and a market pricing in fresh rate cuts later this month.
Traditionally, October has played to Bitcoin’s strengths with a bullish close in 11 of the past 15 years. So why would Ash Crypto expect a reversal now?
His call is straightforward and logical. He’s simply trading cautiously because when everyone believes in a certain outcome, “the market always does the opposite.”
Cycle Theory: History Echoes, Even as Structure Changes
Much attention has focused on four-year market cycles, a rhythm inherited from Bitcoin’s halving schedule. In these cycles, explosive rallies are frequently followed by brutal and sudden drawdowns.
If history repeats, the lights could go out on this bull run as early as mid-October. Ash Crypto writes:
“Bitcoin dumps closer to the $106k level and ETH dumps near $3800 or lower, and everyone will think Uptober is canceled.”
It’s a jarring projection, and one that’s worth keeping in mind for bulls trading with excessive leverage.
While recent on-chain data has been flashing signs of renewed buying power, persistent risks remain.
Even strong liquidity inflows can’t offset the gravitational pull of macro headwinds and wild euphoria forever.
If these same entities become net sellers on a bounce, the escalator up could easily turn into an elevator down.
Macro: US Instability and Liquidity Traps
October’s rally and the BTC price have been fueled by more than just technicals. The US government shutdown, Fed dovishness, and widespread belief in imminent rate cuts have turned Bitcoin into a safe haven.
Yet, this creates crowded trades where everyone is “long risk.” If macroeconomic data, such as a surprise jobs rebound or hawkish Fed pushback, tips the scales, a fast unwind could ensue.
Other Voices Warn About Bitcoin Price Crash
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone raised the possibility of a “peak bubble” for Bitcoin in late September. He suggested that the Bitcoin price could “lose a zero” if macro conditions deteriorate.
His more extreme target is $10,000, putting $106,000 well within the realm of possibility for a sizable correction.
While that lower bound seems dramatic, the median view from top macro and technical analysts favors a pullback to $106,000 as a healthy, even necessary, rinse for the next major leg up.
Bitcoin Price Q4 Outlook: Prepare for the Whiplash
While Ash Crypto sees a dump incoming, he’s still “giga bullish on Q4.” Once the correction has the bears feeling like they’re in control, the market will reverse, and the candles start to go “parabolic.”
He sees a BTC price of between $150,000 and $180,000, and an ETH price above $8,000 before Alt Season begins at last, sending many altcoins 10x-50x in just three or four months.
So, are the markets set to dump? A move to $106,000 is not only plausible but supported by a confluence of market cycles, sentiment indicators, and historical precedent.
And it pays to be pragmatic, as Ash Crypto states:
“To win in this market, you need to plan for both sides.”
For those watching the charts with eyes firmly on the Bitcoin price, expect fireworks to the downside as much as up.