Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis as OTC Balance Drops by $40.8B

The big-picture outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) price remains strong, as it trades above $110,000 today. A bullish data point that paints this optimistic outlook is the significant drop in over-the-counter BTC balances over the years. To be precise, the OTC balance has decreased by 371K, valued at nearly $40.8B at press time.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the OTC balance has dropped from 486K to 115K, showing a 4.2-fold decrease since September 2021. Axel Adler Jr., who pointed out this decline, added,

“At the current withdrawal rate of about 276 BTC per day, the remaining 115K BTC would be depleted by July 2026.”

A decline in the supply is net bullish for the ecosystem in the long-term outlook. However, the short-term bias remains bearish, with the Bitcoin price poised to drop to $106K or lower.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: What’s Next as OTC Balance Drops $40.8B?

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.16% in Tuesday’s early New York trading session, indicating buyers’ intention. However, this attempt to push BTC above $110.4K failed amid rising selling pressure, resulting in a 2% drop to $108,609.

On the one-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price action since the start of May has produced higher highs and higher lows, signaling a bull trend. However, since the May 22 ATH at $111,959.3, BTC has shown weakness, creating two lower highs. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain at the moment as long as the $106.7K level holds.

Theoretically, a Bitcoin price breakdown below $106.7K on the hourly chart would confirm the start of a bearish market regime. In such a case, investors can expect a BTC Crash to the next key zone that extends from $105.8K to $102.4K. Investors looking to short Bitcoin (BTC) futures or buy the dip can set alerts at the aforementioned zone.

While the short-term outlook remains bearish, investors need to note that the long-term trend is still bullish. So long as the $102.4K or $100K psychological level holds, this bullish trend remains intact.

For a detailed and long-term price prediction for Bitcoin 2030-2050: Check This

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Akash Girimath

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist
Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts.

A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise.

Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.