Bitcoin (BTC) Predictions- The Cryptonomist

Bitcoin has always been a catalyst for attention at least in terms of investments, and as a result, predictions.

Since its inception, the digital currency, both because of its inherent characteristics (scarcity, algorithm, deflationary system, etc.) and the introduction of the concept of halving, arouses the attention of an increasing number of people.

Global finance has gradually opened up to this new asset to the point where the world’s largest investment banks have included it in their portfolios. 

Goldman Sachs, the largest US investment bank annually compiles a report on what were the best and worst returns among the investments made. 

The latest report from the financial institution overseas highlights just how Digital Gold is by all accounts the bank’s best-performing asset of 2023.

After a tearful 2022 that led many investors to fear pouring new cash into crypto, the leading digital currency has, as is often the case, outperformed its sector rivals in returns by giving yet another show of strength. 

Bitcoin once again led the way for the crypto sector last year despite the fact that it was not a rosy year, the claim needs to be weighed considering that the value maintained by BTC is unexpected by the assessment of many analysts who predicted a greater loss in value. 

The Goldman Sachs report showed how the crypto asset not only performs better than other more emblazoned ones such as the Standard & Poor 500, Gold, real estate or the Nasdaq 100 but, over time also maintains value better. 

The snapshot from the US investment firm’s annual report notes how Bitcoin has outperformed MSCI, energy, information technology (IT) and even the health care sector. 

Across the earnings spectrum of the US investment bank, BTC accounts for as much as more than 27% of returns, with MSCI in second place accounting for only 8% of total returns.

According to Finbold’s report, the US bank has always been skeptical of Digital Gold but has nevertheless objectively evaluated the asset since 2021 by assessing its performance.

Crypto services have been part of Goldman Sachs’ basket of tools since 2022, an unprolific year for the sector which, despite investor fear, has nevertheless held up well.

The Long Term HOlder MVRV, which is indicative for long positions meaning it indicates on average whether they are in profit or loss, points out how Bitcoin could trace a little more and then attempt the leg-up, at least comparing with the cycle of the previous Halving (dump-stasis-relief-pump). 

Price action points to the next support at €24,400.00 but not before regaining €21,000.00 (as long as the 20,000 support is not lost and the last leg-up is invalidated). 

Even during the other Halving cycles, by overlaying the graphs the pattern repeats the same pattern with some minor differences and taking into account the pandemic. 

Upon careful observation one can divide the halving that on average lasts 4 years into three phases, a first phase of very strong pump immediately after the halving itself is reached, a second phase of descent, and a third that lasts on average between 5 and 14 months of lateralization in which it is possible to touch lows after which the cycle repeats. 

Given that the future cannot be predicted, the tools and the history in the charts help us to understand that we are currently in the third phase and we would be there both in timing (between 5 and 14 months) and movements (substantial phase of lateralization and search for the bottom). 

The prediction of Goldman Sachs, the most important investment bank in the United States of America could be going just in the right direction, at least according to the charts. 

The only shocks could be caused by Powell’s decisions and indeed next week there will be the next FOMC. 

The meeting is not expected to give any surprises and a slight rate hike of 25 basis points is fully priced in by the market.