Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Prolonged Decline Amid Market Volatility, Reports Bitfinex

Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline, according to Bitfinex Alpha, marking a rare occurrence not observed in over 500 days. In the past month alone, Bitcoin has experienced a steep decline of 30.6%, surpassing the 24% drawdown during its 2024 consolidation phase. The overall fall from its all-time high now totals nearly 36%.

Market Dynamics and On-Chain Behavior

The downturn is evident not only in Bitcoin’s price charts but also in on-chain behavior. Short-term holders, who are typically sensitive to market volatility, are capitulating at accelerated rates last seen during the FTX collapse in 2022. Realized losses for these recent buyers have surged to $523 million per day, highlighting the market’s vulnerability in the $106K–$118K range.

In addition, Bitcoin topped out before equities earlier this year, a pattern that could signal potential corrections in traditional markets. Crypto derivatives markets have also been affected, with $19.2 billion in losses recorded on October 10th and an additional $3.9 billion last week, underscoring the stress in futures and perpetual markets.

Seasonality and Economic Indicators

Historically, November has been a positive month for Bitcoin, averaging 40% gains over the past decade. However, this year it is tracking at a negative 21.3%, and October marked its first negative close in seven years. The broader U.S. economic landscape shows moderation, with stable yet cooling labor conditions and cautious consumer spending. Housing indicators remain pessimistic, with builder confidence in contraction and weak buyer traffic.

Regulatory and Sovereign Developments

In the regulatory sphere, the White House is advancing its review of an IRS proposal to join the OECD’s global Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, aiming for greater oversight of Americans’ offshore holdings. Meanwhile, El Salvador continues its sovereign adoption strategy with a historic one-day purchase of 1,090 BTC, valued at approximately $100 million. These moves reflect ongoing regulatory convergence and sovereign positioning in the crypto landscape.

For more details, visit the original Bitfinex Alpha report.

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