Bitcoin has recently reached a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, yet an intriguing shift is emerging beneath the surface—its MVRV ratio hasn’t followed the historical pattern of peaking alongside price.
This divergence may signal a fundamental evolution in BTC market dynamics, suggesting greater maturity and resilience than in previous cycles.
What is the MVRV Ratio and Why Does It Matter?
The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing Market Cap by Realized Cap. Historically, it has served as a valuable metric for identifying overheated markets. When the MVRV ratio rises sharply—especially above 3.5 to 4.0—it often indicates high unrealized profits and has correlated with local tops in Bitcoin’s price, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
However, in this current cycle (2025), Bitcoin has crossed $100K without the MVRV ratio even approaching those previous peak levels. In fact, it currently sits around 2.4, well below past ATH zones.
What Does the Chart Show?
- White Line: Bitcoin’s price (log scale).
- Blue Line: MVRV Ratio.
- Red Zones: Historical MVRV peaks that coincided with major price tops (marked as ATHs).
- Green Zones with Check Marks: Buy zones where MVRV was historically low, suggesting undervaluation.
- Current Period: Despite a new ATH in price (~$108.8K), the MVRV ratio remains subdued—prompting the question mark (?) as a sign of anomaly or evolution.
This visual disconnect raises important questions about market behavior and the forces driving this cycle.
Why This Cycle Is Different
As the author of the post explains, the subdued MVRV ratio can be attributed to a significant rise in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap. This means more coins have moved and settled at higher cost bases than in prior cycles. In essence, the network’s aggregate cost basis has shifted upwards, indicating that many holders acquired their BTC at higher prices, leading to fewer unrealized gains even at new ATHs.
This could suggest:
- Stronger hands at higher prices: Fewer panic sellers or short-term speculators.
- New capital inflows: Absorbing selling pressure and distributing coins at elevated price points.
- Less speculative froth: The kind of exuberance seen in past MVRV peaks may not be present yet.
Implications for Investors
This divergence may represent a healthier bull market, one driven by conviction rather than speculation. While MVRV isn’t flashing a “top” signal, it also implies that the market could have more room to run before becoming overheated.
In conclusion, while price alone tells one story, on-chain metrics like MVRV reveal a deeper narrative—one of structural strength and possibly a maturing market dynamic. If sustained, this trend may alter how we interpret future ATHs and market tops.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-breaks-ath-but-mvrv-ratio-tells-a-new-story/