For months, Bitcoin’s uptrend has absorbed every sell-off without losing its long-term momentum.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin dropping below its two-year SMA signals a potential major trend shift for the market.
- The $85K–$86K zone will decide whether BTC recovers or continues weakening.
- Losing support above $80K could trigger a deeper correction toward the high-$70K range.
That streak just ended — and analysts who track macro-cycle signals are starting to treat the latest price breakdown as more than another routine dip.
A Rare Long-Term Indicator Flips for the First Time in the Cycle
Rather than focusing on short-term oscillators or weekly moving averages, analysts are now pointing to a metric that almost never appears in headlines: the two-year simple moving average.
According to market strategist Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has now fallen below this multi-cycle gauge, a threshold that has historically separated bullish expansions from periods of exhaustion. The 730-day line currently sits near $81,250, and BTC’s slide beneath it suggests that buyers are losing command of the larger trend.
Bitcoin $BTC has typically entered bear markets after falling below the 730-day SMA.
That level is now around $81,250. pic.twitter.com/CjCGYPoCwl
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 22, 2025
The last times Bitcoin breached the same line were after cycle highs — not before — meaning the signal traditionally reflects a turning point rather than anticipates one.
Bulls Face Their First Major Stress Test in the Mid-$80,000s
Even after losing the long-term benchmark, buyers have not given up. Bitcoin pushed to retake the mid-$80,000 zone, a region that many traders now view as Bitcoin’s first real battlefield in months.
Analyst Ted Pillows warns that the $85,000–$86,000 cluster determines whether the market stabilizes or whether momentum continues to unravel.
If bulls can lift BTC above this resistance band and close convincingly, the chart opens the door to a gradual recovery toward $89,000, $92,000, and $95,000 — all levels that supported the market earlier this year.
But There’s a Failure Path — And It Isn’t Pretty
If bulls fail their retest, support just above $80,000 becomes the market’s final defense. Losing that threshold clears a fast route into $78,000–$79,000, the next zone of historical demand.
In that scenario, the breach of the two-year SMA would no longer be a warning — it would be confirmation that Bitcoin’s macro trend has flipped from expansion to cooldown.
Where Things Stand Now
Bitcoin hasn’t committed to either outcome. The market is holding its breath as price fights in the mid-$80,000 range — with bullish recovery on one side of the door and the first true bear phase of the cycle on the other.
Right now, the only certainty is uncertainty. And the next breakout — up or down — will decide whether this cycle still has fuel left, or whether the cooling phase has already begun.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.