Bitcoin Blows Past $123K Weekly Close, New All-time Highs Approach

Bitcoin just clocked its strongest weekly close ever at $123,400, sealing a historic moment in its price discovery arc. Under the hood, onchain and futures data show bulls firmly gripping the wheel above $122,000 — but the market now faces a fork in the road: grind higher or pull back for air.

And in the background? Institutional money just poured into crypto to kick off a week that looks set to post new Bitcoin all time highs. If you don’t already own Bitcoin, now is the time to consider it. The bull market is in full swing as Bitcoin enters price discovery mode.

Bitcoin is looking strong at $125,000 and preparing for the next move higher, source: BNC

$5.95 Billion of Fresh Cash Hits Crypto Funds — A New All-Time High

According to CoinShares, crypto investment products raked in $5.95 billion in inflows last week, smashing the previous record by 35%. Bitcoin took the lion’s share with a staggering $3.6 billion, while Ether grabbed $1.48 billion and Solana added $706.5 million. Even XRP joined the party with $219.4 million.

“We believe this was due to a delayed response to the FOMC interest rate cut, compounded by very weak employment data and concerns over US government stability following the shutdown,” said James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research.

That combination — lower rates, wobbly macro data, and political dysfunction — is basically a bullish cocktail for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETFs Dominate as Market Enters Full-Bull Mode

The fresh capital pushed total crypto assets under management above $250 billion for the first time, hitting $254.4 billion. Unlike earlier inflow surges that were evenly split between BTC and ETH, this time Bitcoin absolutely dominated. Investors are buying exposure to BTC at record pace — and crucially, they’re not shorting it, even as prices hover near all-time highs.

Shutdown Delays? ETF Issuers Don’t Care

The US SEC’s partial shutdown last week spooked markets about potential ETF approval delays in October. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas likened it to a “rain delay” rather than a cancellation. And indeed, Grayscale didn’t wait for clearer skies — it launched the first US-listed spot crypto ETPs with staking, letting investors earn yield on ETH while getting market exposure. 

Price Discovery Mode: Onchain Metrics Light Up

Bitcoin didn’t just flirt with its ATH — it consolidated just below it. 

Futures data is equally frothy:

• Futures flow index: 96% — classic bull mode, with price trading well above its 30-day fair value of $117,500.
  
• Profit/Loss Block score: Maxed at +3, meaning most coins are in profit and buyers are stepping into dips aggressively.
  
• Short-term holder MVRV: Pressing toward the +1σ band near $133,000, hinting at possible profit-taking zones ahead.
  

This is a textbook “up only — until it isn’t” setup.

Two Near-Term Paths: Slow Grind vs. Dip Reset

From here, Bitcoin’s next move likely falls into one of two camps:

1. The Momentum Grind: BTC chops between $122K and $124K, volatility compresses, and price slowly inches higher. This would extend the price discovery phase in a classic “high prices stay high” structure.
   
2. Mean Reversion Dip: A healthy pullback toward the $118.5K–$120K liquidity pocket, aligning with the 50/100/200 EMA cluster on the 4-hour chart. This would flush leverage, rebuild demand, and keep the broader bullish structure intact as long as $118K holds.
   

Either way, the bias remains firmly up — barring a sharp momentum break below mid-$118K. The market isn’t euphoric yet, but the pressure cooker is humming. October is traditionally the second best month for Bitcoin performance, so all signs point to new Bitcoin all time highs.

Bitcoin seasonality shows October is the second strongest month for Bitcoin, Source: X

Bitcoin is now deep in price discovery, powered by record institutional inflows, bullish structural momentum, and a macro backdrop that suddenly looks like a tailwind rather than a headwind. Whether we get a small dip or a slow grind higher, this is bull market behavior. The crowd may not have fully realized it yet — but the smart money already has.