Bitcoin Bear Market 2026: Is $45K the Bottom?

Willy Woo warns Bitcoin could drop to $45K, with bear market weakness lasting until Q4 2026 and recovery seen in 2027.

Bitcoin faces renewed pressure as analysts warn of a deeper downturn before recovery.

Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo has projected a major Bitcoin price crash, with a possible bottom near $45,000.

His outlook places the end of the bearish phase in late 2026, while a new bull cycle may start in 2027.

Willy Woo Warns of Major Bitcoin Price Crash

Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin could rebound toward $75,000 in the short term. He expects a brief period of sideways consolidation as selling pressure eases.

However, he believes any upside move may face rejection.

He said broader market conditions remain weak, with both spot and futures liquidity declining. “I’ve never seen BTC rally when both sources of liquidity are bearish,” Woo noted.

He added that the current regime does not support sustained rallies.

Woo predicted a Bitcoin price crash toward $45,000 as the bear market deepens. He also warned that if global macro conditions deteriorate, Bitcoin could fall to $30,000.

He identified $16,000 as the final level to maintain the long-term bull structure.

Bitcoin Bear Market 2026 Timeline and $45K Bottom

According to Woo, $45,000 represents a typical bear market bottom level. He expects strong buy-the-dip activity around that price. Market participants may see that zone as a key support area.

This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.

This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE

— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026

Regarding timing, Woo expects the bearish trend to weaken in the fourth quarter of 2026.

“If I was to make an educated guess, I’d say Q4 would be good timing for the end of the bearish trend,” he said. This projection aligns with previous Bitcoin cycle patterns.

He anticipates that a bullish trend could return in the first or second quarter of 2027. That period may mark the end of the Bitcoin bear market 2026 phase.

Historical cycle data often shows recovery after extended consolidation periods.

Related Reading: BlackRock Buys $289M in Bitcoin as ETF Inflows Hit $500M

Broader Market Views and Current Bitcoin Price Action

Other analysts have shared similar downside targets. Veteran trader Peter Brandt projected a decline toward $42,000. That level aligns with the 200-week moving average.

Some market participants expect Bitcoin to revisit its realized price near $54,000.

Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that selling pressure is weakening. He said the crypto market appears to be in the process of forming a bottom.

The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else.

The real reason bitcoin is down is that a…

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 26, 2026

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $67,800, down about 1 percent.

Glassnode reported continued profit-taking around the $70,000 level. Thin liquidity conditions mean small sell-offs can limit recovery attempts.

The Bitcoin bear market 2026 outlook now centers on whether $45K will act as the real bottom.

Analysts continue to monitor liquidity trends, macro data, and on-chain metrics for confirmation.