Bitcoin Back Above $112K as Mid-Cycle Sellers Loom Over Rally Hopes

Key Points

• Bitcoin is trading at $112,976.27 with a 24-hour gain of +1.77% after rejecting from the $124K high.
• Support at $112K remains crucial as resistance builds near $119K and $123K.
• On-chain data shows reduced activity but a rise in long-term seller positioning, suggesting cautious market sentiment.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $112,976.27, posting a +1.77% gain over the past 24 hours. However, it is still down -0.18% hourly and -0.39% weekly.

Price action has returned inside the prior trading range after sweeping liquidity near the $124K all-time high level. The $112K support now acts as a critical line that bulls must defend to avoid further downside.

Key Levels Show Support at $111.9K and Resistance Near $119K

On the 4-hour KuCoin BTC/USDT chart, immediate resistance lies at $114,755 and $116,813, followed by a strong barrier at $119,504. Above this, $123,288 marks the last key resistance before the $124K ATH zone.

On the downside, $111,918 is the nearest support, while $103,190 is the next major level if that zone fails. These levels provide a clear roadmap for traders monitoring potential breakout or breakdown areas.

Network Activity Cools as Long-Term Sellers Begin Positioning

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has dropped, as seen in the NAA (Number of Active Addresses), which has declined from 60% to 30%. This sharp fall signals reduced coin movement, meaning less short-term selling pressure and lower speculative activity.

Despite this, the annual NAA trend has climbed from 30% to 40% since Bitcoin hit $80K, showing long-term holders are becoming active. These sellers are gradually entering the market, preparing to sell into strength at higher prices.

The peak NAA level of 85% occurred during the sharp sell-off in September 2023 when Bitcoin traded near $37K, reflecting capitulation. Compared to that period, the current trend signals a slower, more strategic selling phase.

Bearish Signals Flash as Bull Score Drops to 20

Moreover, CryptoQuant data shows the Bull Score has dropped to 20, indicating weakening bullish conditions. This index combines key indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, Profit & Loss Index, Cycle Indicator, and Trader Profit Margin.

These metrics show fading momentum, shifting the market from “bullish cooldown” to “bearish” territory over recent weeks. The weakening structure suggests Bitcoin could face challenges unless fresh demand or liquidity supports a breakout.

Historical patterns show that such low Bull Score readings often precede corrections or longer consolidation phases. As long as Bitcoin holds above $112K, the broader structure remains intact, but upside may be limited.